History seems to repeat itself, especially between the U.S. elections and the price movements of Bitcoin, there exists a peculiar correlation.
Before each U.S. election, Bitcoin experiences significant volatility. In the elections of 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin saw noticeable declines before the elections, but afterward, it rebounded strongly, even initiating a new bull market. By 2024, this 'curse' seems to be validated again, as Bitcoin has undergone another substantial drop before the elections.
It is often said 'to learn from history'; from a historical perspective, the price trends of Bitcoin after each election have left a deep impression. So, what impact will this election result have on Bitcoin?
If Trump is elected, Bitcoin may be boosted in the short term, with prices likely to rise. After all, some of Trump's policy proposals and statements may be viewed as favorable in the crypto community. Conversely, if Harris is elected, Bitcoin may face downward pressure in the short term. However, in the long run, the impact of the two candidates’ elections on Bitcoin may differ.
If Trump is elected, Bitcoin might initially rise to a high of $90,000 to $100,000, then fluctuate between $70,000 and $90,000, before reaching new highs. If Harris is elected, Bitcoin may consolidate between $50,000 and $70,000 for some time, then initiate a slow bull market in the medium to long term, potentially exceeding $100,000.
However, the reasons behind this are quite complex. It mainly involves the interest groups behind the two candidates and how their policy proposals affect inflation expectations differently. The interest groups behind Harris might be more inclined to stimulate the economy through monetary easing, which could be good news for the crypto community.
Now, everyone is guessing who will be elected. Data from Polymarket shows Trump’s support at 58%, while Harris is at 42%. However, in polls, Harris has a slight lead, so the outcome is still uncertain.
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