At this point, an old trader's advice to newcomers would be 95%:
- Hold coins long-term instead of trading short-term... Because holding has less risk, it's easier to get rich than trading.
- Hold altcoins instead of Bitcoin... Because holding altcoins has a higher potential for significant gains, it's easier to get rich than holding Bitcoin.
- Choose to hold foundational technology coins instead of trash meme projects... Because foundational coins have clearer technology, and more reputable backers than useless memes.
That is the guiding principle, the secret passed down, the introductory lesson for newcomers.
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And the result is that currently, 95% of players are in the situation:
Stuck with capital at the peak because of continuously holding coins through DCA year after year without clear stop-loss points.
Holding altcoins, prices stagnating, creating continuous lows, and watching BTC's price surge to new heights with regret.
Holding a pile of coins promoted as 'technology that changes humanity' with prices in tatters while watching memes soar.
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The question is... Why?
Answer: Because we have been taught by the house, trained like this since previous seasons.
Each season, each market phase, the house will write a story to lead the crowd into the game... They use stories, news, price movements, and actions to guide the crowd towards the game they want...
The story will be spread from the house to the fund, from the fund to KOLs, from KOLs to veteran traders, and finally it will spread to the disorganized, aggressive crowd full of confidence entering the market.
That's when liquidity is large enough, deep enough... That's when tips, tricks, secrets, and experiences are shared continuously, 'ultimate success formulas, insider tricks' are shared across social media and private groups... And... a major dump will officially begin.
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Going back to the beginning of the 2020-2021 season... When the story of some people getting rich from holding Bitcoin instead of trading emerged... Many traders abandoned their trading careers to switch to holding.
Next comes the surprising story of getting rich by holding a few old altcoins that surged dozens to hundreds of times. Many people abandoned BTC to hold altcoins.
Then the story of 'technology' emerged. Many people switched from holding BTC to holding top foundational coins. Then came GAMEFI, METAVERSE...
And the result is... After each time the house tells a story and leads, there is a small, quick, lucky group that gets in early and profits significantly. They came early, from the moment the story was just beginning to form and the crowd still completely believed in the old story... The remaining majority will lose money because they follow the crowd when the new story has become reality, and liquidity is large enough.
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Currently, it is easy to see that the next story being told could be MEME coins and AI... Especially leaning towards MEME.
This time last year, there were few people talking about memes. Some debates between those holding technology coins staying away from memes (taught from previous seasons) and those arguing that memes are the main niche of this season.
But at the current moment, the story about memes has become more convincing, gaining support from the crowd.
There have been examples of hitting it big with memes, major funds and OG meme shillers, KOL meme shillers, discussions about memes at major industry events, strong pumps of memes, and Binance continuously listing memes.
The meme story is spreading widely and is being told by many with a similar script, 'memes are fairer than overvalued technology coins'... And the resistance from the technology coin side has gradually weakened compared to last year.
As a regular player in the market, going through many stories and different phases. I cannot be sure what the next story will be and which direction it will go. But there are two things I have drawn from following this market.
- You must be quick-witted, grasp the story early and get in right from the start... You will have the advantage of being an early player when the game is still new, liquidity is not yet large, and the house has not yet dumped... Only then can you have a good position... All that so-called experience and secrets... Sometimes it's just old stories from previous seasons.
- You must be one to leave early... When the story has truly heated up, the crowd believes and retells it, when the story has become absurd... You must leave to keep your money; if you choose to stay with the fanatical crowd with the story and belief... You will be stuck at the peak.
Until now, I still feel like the house is telling stories about memes... Steering liquidity towards this niche to prepare for the next brutal major dump.
What about you guys? What do you think?
(Save this post, so in 3-6 months if a major dump occurs, come back and see if the opinions below are still valid)