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Trump's performance in this year's election can be described as exceeding expectations; compared to the 2016 election, he is now more popular. He will be the first Republican presidential candidate in 20 years to win the national popular vote. Why is that? After all, Trump has gone through countless scandals and lawsuits and became the first felon to enter the White House. He is also the first president to win after non-consecutive terms and the first president to be impeached twice. How can Trump win, and not only sweep swing states but also win the popular vote?
According to existing data, a preliminary analysis suggests that one of the most important reasons for Trump winning the election is the extreme dissatisfaction of voters with the current state of America, especially high inflation and a significant increase in the cost of living, which have become the most concerning issues for American voters. Therefore, regardless of whether you like Trump or not, dissatisfied voters will punish the ruling party due to their dissatisfaction with life and work. According to exit polls, 79% of American voters support Trump, while only 20% support Harris, and dissatisfied voters are spread across the country. This time, Trump also achieved good results in Democratic strongholds like New York and San Francisco. In New York City, Trump's support is 10% higher than in 2020.
Second, Trump’s strategy of attracting voters has worked, especially in attracting young men, Black men, and Hispanic voters. This group of voters is referred to as 'the brothers' by Trump's campaign advisors. At the same time, Trump’s performance among Latino voters has also been surprisingly good, achieving the best results since George W. Bush in 2004.
Third, the Democratic voting rate was lower than expected, with the final number of voters possibly at 152 million, down from 158 million in 2020. Moreover, in major swing states, the decline in Democratic voting rates was even more pronounced, which is a fatal blow. This means that Harris neither persuaded swing state voters nor gained support from voters in key districts. The abortion issue that the Democrats previously emphasized also seems to have had little effect, as voters were not more motivated to come out and vote for Harris because of it.
Why Trump is favored by voters will also be one of the hottest research topics in various sectors in the United States during this period.
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