Metrics Ventures' November market observation guide for the secondary crypto market:
1/ The disordered consolidation that has lasted for 7 months has finally come to an end. The price actions before and after the election clearly reflect the liquidity dilemma emphasized repeatedly in the past few months and the growing pricing power outside the market. The trading behaviors of the past cycle are increasingly constrained by the changing environment, and the market has given all participants a clear answer.
2/ From the perspective of the market, various operations of altcoins are constrained by a significant lack of liquidity, with price actions ending in failure. This month's fully circulating altcoin market cap is around 1 billion USD, while the loss of price anchoring for new coins and the rapid rotation in the Meme sector further confirm the issues with capital flow in the market.
3/ Strategically, we no longer rely on old discussions; whether it's the future FOMC or geopolitics, neither are the key factors determining the market trend. The tide is vast, and quietly accompanying the industry's growth is the best strategy.
A review and commentary on the overall market trends and movements:
As of the date I began writing at the beginning of the month, the biggest difference from the previous monthly report is:
① The unexpected outcome of the election has significantly alleviated risk concerns, leading Bitcoin to break through new highs on increased volume. Although it still requires time to confirm this breakthrough, any technical analysis should eliminate previous anxieties.
② The four major geopolitical issues, rising long-term U.S. Treasury rates, excessive Trump-related trades, and risks from insufficient liquidity that have overshadowed this month have now been alleviated by half. Due to the unexpectedly strong government, the market may grant various assets an optimistic risk premium for a certain period.
③ Unfortunately, we still have not seen clear liquidity improvements in the market. This breakthrough is far from the momentum and sentiment of the breakthrough at the beginning of the year. Although a significant number of VC coins are at the end of the March consolidation period, it seems that a large-scale market trend cannot be compared to the previous rounds.
In the long term, the bell of the new era has already rung. Perhaps the insights on macro, politics, military, and economics vary from person to person, but the operational model of capital in the reservoir and its future positioning are now clear. What needs to be reiterated is that the shift in the flow of funds has increasingly weakened the correlation between BTC and on-chain Altcoins. The so-called comprehensive altcoin season, under the backdrop of high penetration, is left with only two paths: ultra-loose liquidity and innovative tier-jumping plays.
This monthly report is particularly brief, and the essence lies in riding the wave, trading trends; this heart is bright, what more is there to say.
