It can be called the sexiest narrative of Web3 in 2024, 'Trump becomes the first Bitcoin president,' which concluded on the evening of November 5 in U.S. time. Bitcoin has also broken through the wide range of fluctuations that lasted for half a year, surpassing the previous peak around $73,700 and reaching a maximum of $76,000.
In the traditional market perception, the Trump meme coin most closely associated with Trump was expected to surge with the news of Trump's election. However, interestingly, on the day of Trump's election during the Web3 celebration on November 6, the Trump series meme coins did not show outstanding performance when they should have been on the mainstream exchange's drop list, instead experiencing a 'halving.'
For example, the address 0x2f6...1Be78 invested nearly $250,000 to buy 70,000 TRUMP tokens at an average price of $3.55 amidst FOMO sentiment benefiting the 'understanding king' in the morning yesterday, and is currently facing a loss of $88,000 (approximately 35.5%).
Why the drop?
Looking at the performance of Trump series meme coins since their issuance, taking Trump as an example, the price was already at a relatively low point just before Trump's campaign. Interestingly, when we observe the accounts that Trump has already disclosed, since May, Trump's crypto addresses have accumulated over $3 million, with major losses coming from the Trump-named meme coins, whose quantity has not decreased; however, with the price shrinkage, the assets in Trump's addresses have also significantly decreased.
After Trump's successful campaign, there are certainly expectations of 'good news being exhausted,' but taking the Trump-named token as an example, it did not show a significant increase before experiencing a 'halving,' which is clearly contrary to logic.
Do political series memes have no future?
In contrast, some recently emerged political memes, such as Pnut and D.O.G.E, have not shown the obvious decline like Trump and MAGA; instead, they have seen an increase.
Unlike Pnut and memes like Trump and MAGA, Trump and MAGA are more like direct political meme narratives. Digging into their stories reflects support for Trump, while Pnut's story can be explored more deeply.
Pnut is named after a small pet that mechanical engineer Mark Longo brought home after witnessing a small squirrel's mother tragically die in an accident more than seven years ago. On October 30, officials from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation arrested Peanut without a search warrant and euthanized it.
Peanut is considered an 'illegally raised wild animal,' which the public does not recognize. The satirical news site Babylon Bee stated, 'Radical squirrels wearing MAGA hats begin to revolt.' Elon Musk has also repeatedly voiced support for Peanut on social media, with the Peanut controversy being interpreted as an unusual campaign against the Democratic Party, even serving as a weapon in political contests.
From this perspective, we can see that the political series of memes has not ended; rather, the narrative merely supporting Trump is not 'sexy' enough.
Interestingly, the 'betting prediction platform' PolyMarket and the Trump series of memes have, to some extent, become premium. Investing in Trump series memes is not as good as betting on Trump's victory on PolyMarket; the underlying logic is the same. PolyMarket has seen significant increases in trading volume and the number of predicted events for 2024, which may explain the long-standing slump in the prices of Trump series meme coins.
Meme or DeFi? The crypto crossroads after Trump's ascension.
In the eyes of many degens in the market, Trump's rise to become the first 'Bitcoin president' in U.S. history is sure to create many 'golden dogs,' as on that day, degens were keen to find all sorts of 'angles' on Twitter.
For example, JD Vance's dog Atlas participated in voting, and the newly appointed Sec Chair, referred to as 'Crypto Mom,' Hester, ultimately could not escape the logic of 'PVP.' After reaching a market cap of several million dollars, it quickly fell back to zero. Many 'diamond-handed degens' faced PVP failures that day.
Shifting focus from DEX to CEX reveals completely different market sentiments. The sentiment in CEX is very enthusiastic, with 'zeroed-out altcoins' that had been criticized for half a year showing considerable gains. On the day Trump took office, the 'on-chain wild lodge' seems to have disappeared, with many believing, 'As regulation loosens and one can make money on the table, there is indeed no need to engage in on-chain wild lodges.'
DeFi tokens with protocol revenue have largely freed themselves from concerns about being classified as 'securities.' Rune Christensen, founder of Sky (formerly MakerDAO), stated on social media, 'Trump's victory will drive a real and lasting revival of DeFi, significantly increasing the likelihood of a tenfold increase in users, as DeFi benefits the most from reduced regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. compared to other areas of the crypto space.'
These DeFi tokens experienced considerable gains following Trump's election, with Uniswap gaining as much as 46%, Ethena 72%, Jito 63%, and Lido DAO 56%, although there has been a slight pullback as of the time of writing.
Perhaps in the near future, we will witness a 'bull return,' with liquidity in CEX becoming abundant again, while hot money on-chain becomes less active. Memes may no longer be the moments when a slight angle can lead to a market cap of twenty million dollars; instead, they will require sexier and deeper narratives to drive the growth of consensus.
