Hey, friends, have you heard? The $28 trillion U.S. government bond market, which was supposed to bounce around a bit, now looks like it’s going to 'take a break!' Why? It’s not because our 'Twitter governance' expert, Grandpa Trump, is about to return to the White House with big moves! He plans to undertake a massive fiscal expansion, making it tough for the Fed to cut rates!

Speaking of which, the Federal Reserve just 'reluctantly' lowered the rate by 25 basis points on Friday. Back in September, they generously lowered it by 50 basis points! This rhythm of rate cuts is just like playing a game of 'you chase me, I chase you.'

But now, market participants are starting to murmur: with Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs, economic growth is soaring, and prices are rising too. The Federal Reserve sees this and thinks, 'This won’t do! If we cut rates significantly, won’t inflation skyrocket?' As a result, everyone’s hopes for low borrowing costs and a rebound in bonds might just go up in smoke!

Tony Rodriguez from Nuveen said, 'With the elections causing a stir, the pace of Fed rate cuts will be as slow as a snail!' He also predicts that by 2025, the number of Fed rate cuts will be pitifully low, with long intervals, like waiting for a 'once-in-a-millennium' meteor shower.

Looking at U.S. Treasury yields, since mid-September, they have shot up by over 70 basis points, a rise that is simply 'like riding a rocket!' Coincidentally, this increase is in 'sync' with Trump's rising support in polls and betting markets!

Investors are worried now, expecting that by the end of next year, rates can only drop from the current 4.5%-4.75% to 3.7%, which is 100 basis points higher than the expectations back in September! Strategists at Bank of America Global Research are also quickly adjusting their targets, fearing being left behind by this 'Trump market.'

What about Federal Reserve Chairman Powell? He’s quite calm, saying that the rise in yields is due to a good economic outlook, not because inflation is coming. But the market folks are not buying this, as inflation expectations are soaring!

Dan Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer of Pacific Investment Management Company, is extremely worried. He said that if inflation rebounds for real, the Fed will have to slow down rate cuts, or even pause them, which would be disastrous! He even mentioned that in the short term, the worst-case scenario for the market is that inflation starts to 'accelerate.'

Speaking of the 'red wave,' that’s the synonym for the Republican Party controlling the White House and both houses of Congress. If Trump really does this, wouldn’t tax cuts be within reach? The Republican economic agenda would also flow smoothly!

However, it’s still unknown who will ultimately control the House of Representatives, as counting the votes takes time!

Andrzej Skiba from Royal Bank of Canada Global Asset Management is preparing for further selling of long-term bonds. He said that if tariff policies really come as expected, then Fed rate cuts? Don’t even think about it!

Rick Rieder from BlackRock is also worried. He said that if the Federal Reserve significantly cuts rates in 2025, it would be 'giving money to the market!' In his view, bonds are now a valuable source of income, so betting on rate cuts? Better save that thought!

Lastly, we have to talk about U.S. Treasury yields. The impact of rising yields on the stock market doesn’t seem significant at the moment, as the stock market has already risen happily, and investors are full of confidence about the possibility of strong economic growth! The S&P 500 index has even hit a historic high!

But if yields rise too sharply and too quickly, the stock market could have a headache. Why? Higher yields are competitors to stocks, and the cost of capital for businesses and consumers also rises. Can the stock market remain calm under these circumstances?

So, we still need to keep an eye on the 4.5% level of U.S. Treasury yields to see how far this 'Trump market' can go!