1. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October - November 13, 2024.
The Core CPI for October (m/m) represents a measure that excludes volatile prices for food and energy, reflecting the real level of inflation. The Core CPI is an indicator of purchasing power and inflationary processes in the U.S. economy. At high values of this index, the Fed may lean towards further tightening of monetary policy, which could put pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
Possible impact on the crypto market:
If the Core CPI is higher than expected, it may lead to a short-term decrease in the value of cryptocurrencies, as investors fear inflationary pressure. Conversely, lower values may stimulate increased interest in crypto assets, as they are often seen as an alternative to fiat money in conditions of more lenient monetary policy.
2. Oil Inventory Report (EIA) - November 13, 2024.
The EIA oil inventory report tracks the volume of oil in U.S. storage. It not only shows the state of the energy sector but can also indirectly influence the U.S. dollar and inflation levels. If the report shows an increase in inventories, it may indicate a decrease in demand, which often leads to lower oil prices and can impact overall inflation.
Possible impact on the crypto market:
Oil prices are often correlated with inflation, and volatility in commodity markets can indirectly affect cryptocurrencies. A drop in oil prices may increase interest in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if oil inventories decrease, leading to price increases, this may weaken demand for cryptocurrencies due to higher inflation expectations.
3. Inflation Report (CPI) - November 14, 2024.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides data on inflation growth, which remains one of the main topics for the U.S. economy. If the CPI continues to rise, it may lead to tightening monetary policy from the Fed. For the cryptocurrency sector, inflation plays a significant role: in high inflation conditions, investors may prefer Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as alternative assets for capital preservation.
Possible impact on the crypto market:
A high CPI, especially one exceeding analysts' expectations, may intensify interest in cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation, which could trigger growth in Bitcoin and other leading assets. Conversely, a decrease in CPI may weaken demand for crypto assets, as their popularity often increases during periods of high inflation.
4. Initial Jobless Claims - November 14, 2024.
The weekly report on jobless claims provides information about the labor market situation and indirectly indicates the state of the economy as a whole. An increase in claims may signal problems in the labor market, negatively impacting consumer confidence. Lower-than-expected figures, on the other hand, support economic stability.
Possible impact on the crypto market:
A sharp increase in claims may reduce investor confidence and trigger the sale of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, with a decrease in claims for benefits, investors may strengthen their positions in cryptocurrencies, anticipating economic growth and potential demand for digital assets.
5. Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell - November 14, 2024.
The speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell following the release of the CPI and other economic data may become a key event determining investor expectations regarding future policy. The Fed Chair often comments on major economic trends, including inflation and employment, which can impact financial markets. Depending on the rhetoric of the speech, the cryptocurrency market may either strengthen or correct.
Possible impact on the crypto market:
If Powell expresses concern about high inflation and hints at the possibility of policy tightening, it may lead to a decrease in crypto assets. On the other hand, if he emphasizes stability or neutrality of policy, it may boost interest in cryptocurrencies as risk assets.
6. Retail Sales Data - November 15, 2024.
The retail sales report is one of the important indicators of the state of the economy, reflecting the level of consumer spending. A high level of retail sales indicates consumer confidence and labor market stability, which supports economic growth. If sales are increasing, it may signal sustained demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a sharp decline in sales may indicate an economic downturn.
Possible impact on the crypto market:
A decrease in consumer spending may affect cryptocurrency prices, as market participants may view this as a signal to move funds into more stable assets. Conversely, if sales show steady or high growth, cryptocurrencies may also receive support from overall positive sentiment in the markets.
