Several U.S. media outlets announced on Wednesday (November 6) that Republican presidential candidate Trump had won the election and will move into the White House presidential office again in January 2025.
He will be the first president in the history of the United States to be convicted, and the second president to be elected non-consecutively. He is also the president supported by Ma Baoguo (Musk supports Chuan Jianguo). At a rally in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump said: "I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of electing me as your 47th president and 45th president." He also said that the country "needs help." With his victory, it will usher in a "golden age of America." Trump said: "This is a great victory for the American people and will enable us to make America great again."
Listening to Trump's grandiloquent speeches, if we think back to when Trump was elected as the 45th President of the United States in 2016 and then lost to Biden, I still believe his personality traits have not changed; he remains the same stubborn, conservative, self-righteous president with little room for maneuver. This character and governing style not only bring much uncertainty to the world but also instability, even insecurity; over the next four years, various situations in the world will undergo significant changes. A supporter of Harris said, 'I am really angry. If he (Trump) wins, it will be very dangerous. I feel unsafe.'
The first issue is that he is a major proponent of anti-globalization and practices unilateralism under the banner of 'America First.' Trump enjoys imposing tariffs whenever there is a disagreement. He imposes tariffs on Chinese manufacturing, German manufacturing, Mexican manufacturing, and any competitive manufacturing that poses a challenge to the U.S., all while ensuring that he does not suffer any losses, with increases of several dozen percent, and sometimes even doubling the tariffs. Trump has led the U.S. to withdraw from more than ten treaties and international organizations, including the Paris Agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Iran nuclear deal, UNESCO, and the World Health Organization. In Trump's view, the entire world is taking advantage of the U.S. and hitching rides on America’s coattails, which is unacceptable; therefore, tariffs should be imposed on them. Huang Jinhao, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, assessed in an interview that 'Trump may make deals with any and all partners (friends or enemies alike) for political expediency, rather than uphold the core values of a free international order.'
But other countries are not pushovers either. 'If others do not offend me, I will not offend others; if others offend me, I will retaliate.' The world is very likely to evolve into a four-year tariff war. Trump will not engage in losing deals; if something does not seem profitable, he will quickly change his approach, with a series of thrilling gambles taking place at any moment. Upholding America First is not wrong, but we other countries are not second-class citizens. Why should we listen to you? Why should everything revolve around you, Trump? The instructor once said, 'Where there is oppression, there is resistance.' If you dare to act and go too far, other countries will surely retaliate. The world has no savior; we rely on ourselves. Unilateralism and anti-globalization have instead spurred others, igniting the fighting spirit between countries and strengthening their cooperation.
The second issue is that war will not only not decrease but may even intensify. Trump claims he has a good relationship with Putin and can end the Russo-Ukrainian war as soon as he takes office. However, ending the Russo-Ukrainian war is not that easy, as the interests at stake involve not just the U.S. but also European countries. The military opposition to Russia does not come solely from the U.S. but from the entire NATO alliance; can Trump really have the final say? As for whether he can achieve this, we will have to wait and see. Even if Trump has the means to end the formal war, will the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the long-standing covert war between NATO and Russia, come to an end? Sources revealed to The Washington Post that during a phone call last month with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump told him, 'Do what you should do.' After announcing his victory, Netanyahu was the first to congratulate him, while Hamas urged him to learn from the mistakes of the Biden administration.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University and head of the U.S. Studies Center, previously told Interface News that if Trump is re-elected, the extreme hawks in the new U.S. government will not only push for economic decoupling from China but will also escalate confrontations with China on security issues, including the Taiwan issue. Additionally, North Korea's frequent missile tests and its assistance to Russia in countering Ukraine pose significant challenges. After Trump took office, could North Korea, which supposedly trembled in fear of him, be willing to give up midway? It seems that with Trump in power, global conflicts will not settle down but may intensify. Of course, under Trump’s strategy of absolute American priority, when it comes to critical moments, he would not care about the lives of people from other countries or groups.
The third and biggest issue is that he wants to be the police, making others pay protection fees. Europe must pay protection fees; Taiwan must pay protection fees; any country under U.S. protection must pay and must comply. However, Trump wants to be the world's police while sitting at home drinking beer, saying, 'A bunch of rogues may rob at any time, but the police are gone, and I can't manage it.' He is absent when there are problems but comes running when there are interests, which is one of the biggest dangers brought about by Trump's presidency. If Harris is elected, she will inherit Biden's foreign policy, suppressing Russia and viewing China as a competitor, engaging in 'forming cliques' and 'building walls,' and reshaping supply chains. However, Harris will inherit a politician's flexible methods to responsibly manage competitive factors in U.S.-China relations. Although China and the U.S. are competitors, maintaining stable U.S.-China relations is of significant strategic importance for global stability. Harris will continue Biden's approach of peaceful competition with China, but Trump's 'milk the cow' approach will exacerbate conflicts and worsen the situation.
The fourth issue is that there are enormous challenges to the U.S. economy and finance, affecting the direction of the world economy. There is a Chinese saying, 'No breaking, no standing.' Trump's characteristic is breaking, which is also what attracts many American citizens, giving them hope. When an order has lasted too long, with many vested interests, it becomes harder for those below to find upward mobility, leading to a desire to break the situation. The issue of social mobility also exists in the U.S.; Trump's assistant, soon-to-be Vice President Vance, is an example of someone who has struggled to cross social classes. Thus, Trump's willingness to break all conventions and old customs represents the hope of many who want to break through the norms for self-improvement and development. However, this also poses a huge challenge to the current American economic and financial system, as Trump's proposed economic policies could accelerate the triggering of the U.S. debt crisis. Some measures may show a good growth trajectory in the short term, but his radical fiscal and immigration policies could lead to even more challenges for the U.S. economy.
Germany, severely dependent on trade with the U.S. and already in trouble, will face severe blows from tariffs on European automobiles. Although the impact of increased tariffs may not be felt in Europe until the end of 2025, the renewed uncertainty and concerns over trade wars could lead the Eurozone economy into recession. The likelihood of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at the December meeting has increased, and further easing may occur by the end of 2025. Under the influence of intense confrontation and unipolar economic policies, this may instead promote deeper cooperation between Europe and China, ushering in a new chapter in the world economic development landscape.
Laozi said, 'Misfortune may be a blessing in disguise; fortune may be hidden misfortune,' or 'When the old man of the frontier lost his horse, how could one know it was not a blessing?' If the world really unites with determination to challenge the United States under Trump’s approach, forming a new development consortium and shaking off excessive reliance on the U.S., what could be wrong with that?
Hayek said, 'While we are consciously striving to create our future based on some lofty ideals, we are actually unconsciously creating results that are entirely contrary to what we have always fought for. Can people imagine a greater tragedy than this?' Trump is an extraordinary figure, a capable person; Musk calls him a brave hero, and I agree. I also like this lovable old man, but I do not like him as president because any extreme stubborn and paranoid words and actions disgust me.
Finally, let me conclude with a quote from Hayek: The difference between contemporary events and those in history lies in our ignorance of the consequences they will produce.
