While you are still immersed in the heated discussions of mainstream media, anxiously awaiting the results from key swing states, an on-chain prediction market called Polymarket has quietly provided a clear answer. Before midnight Eastern Time, Polymarket had already set Trump’s chances of winning at 97%, hours ahead of any mainstream media! This raises the question, is on-chain prediction market really that amazing?
Before the election began, Polymarket's data was vastly different from mainstream predictions. While most polling models viewed the election as a 50/50 situation, Polymarket gave Trump a 62% chance of winning. Such predictions naturally raised doubts from some traditional media, who believed that Polymarket's users were mostly 'cryptocurrency enthusiasts' or 'foreign investors' lacking objectivity and a legitimate data foundation.
But is this really the case?
First, we need to understand that the design of prediction markets itself encourages various participants to provide accurate insights. Whether users are from the U.S. or abroad, they are interpreting and predicting election outcomes in their own way. Polymarket's community clearly understands that mainstream polls fail to adequately reflect voters' true intentions.
Furthermore, the challenges faced by modern polling are increasingly significant. Today’s response rates are extremely low, making precise sampling very challenging. Although polling organizations claim they have adjusted for past errors, Polymarket's predictions show that these adjustments are still insufficient. In three consecutive elections, polls underestimated support for Trump, while Polymarket accurately captured this trend.
So, what exactly is Polymarket's advantage on election night?
The answer lies in its instant responsiveness. While mainstream media is cautiously waiting for 'verifiable' results, Polymarket has already made judgments based on new data. By midnight, Polymarket had raised Trump’s win probability to nearly certain levels, a speed that is breathtaking.
In contrast, the cautious strategy of mainstream media, while maintaining suspense, has also lost timeliness. Polymarket, on the other hand, focuses entirely on results, speaks with data, and relies on facts to persuade.
Moreover, Polymarket's decentralized nature also allows it to avoid media bias. Data can flow naturally, and prices adjust accordingly, without the need for editorial oversight or narrative guidance. This mechanism enables Polymarket to make judgments earlier and with greater objectivity and accuracy.
In this election, Polymarket's performance undoubtedly proves the value of prediction markets. It not only avoids bias but also maintains accuracy ahead of mainstream media. While traditional media is still explaining the differences between polls and final results, Polymarket has already predicted these changes in advance.
This compels us to rethink the role of traditional media in future elections. As the data integration and rapid responsiveness of prediction markets strengthen, the public may gradually turn to these decentralized markets as a more flexible data-driven option.
So, when the next major event occurs, will you still choose to trust traditional media? Or will you opt for platforms like Polymarket that speak with data, helping you understand the truth more quickly and accurately?
In this era of information explosion, what we need is not just news and commentary, but real, accurate, and timely data. Polymarket is exactly such a platform that can provide instant decentralized insights. It presents new possibilities for future political predictions and fills us with expectations for on-chain prediction markets.
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The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investment involves risks, and one must be cautious when entering the market!
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