Polymarket Resolves Presidential Election Bets as Trump Declared Winner
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, has officially resolved its U.S. presidential election market following calls from major news organizations, including the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, declaring Donald Trump the winner.
This resolution comes after a trading volume exceeding $3 billion was recorded in the lead-up to the election.
Prior to Election Day, Polymarket bettors assigned Trump a 62% chance of victory, while Kamala Harris held a 38% chance. This market sentiment shifted notably in October, diverging from national polling averages that showed a tight race, with Harris leading by just 1%.
If the election outcome had not been called by media outlets, the market would have remained open until Inauguration Day on January 20, resolving based on the actual inauguration.
Trump's campaign has been marked by a pro-crypto stance, accepting cryptocurrency donations and proposing measures to enhance the U.S.'s position in the crypto industry. In contrast, Harris's approach has focused on broad support for the crypto sector while emphasizing consumer protection without specific policies.
Despite the high trading volume, analysts expressed concerns regarding the liquidity of Polymarket's election bets, suggesting that its predictive power might be limited. Some experts highlighted the mixed track record of prediction markets in elections, pointing to potential biases among users.
Following the election, analysts at Animoca Brands Research indicated that Polymarket might retain user interest, noting that 75% of traders engage with a variety of topics beyond elections.
In the immediate aftermath of the election, Bitcoin prices surged, trading at approximately $73,757, following projections of significant price movements dependent on the election outcome.
Analysts had anticipated that a Trump victory could push Bitcoin prices to between $80,000 and $90,000, while a Harris win could result in a drop to around $50,000.
