When it comes to US elections and their impact on Bitcoin, this topic always sparks heated discussions among crypto enthusiasts. Many investors and analysts tend to believe that any major political events—especially those like presidential elections—can significantly affect the cryptocurrency market. However, the reality is that the Bitcoin market operates somewhat differently than the traditional stock market. In the case of the upcoming US elections, the impact on the crypto market is likely already 'priced in,' and strangely enough, regardless of the voting outcome, we will most likely see a correction.
The market already knows what to do
When elections are so predictable and discussed, the market starts to 'price them in' long before the actual event. The price of Bitcoin tends to react in advance to such major events, and those who actively follow the rate may have noticed increased volatility against the backdrop of election expectations. As a result, the market seems to 'calm down' before the final chord. Investors have already placed their bets; some bought in anticipation of a Democratic victory, while others are holding assets in expectation of a Republican triumph. And it doesn't matter who ends up in the Oval Office—the market can make a correction anyway. This resembles behavior before the release of major news: the expected event occurs, the wave of excitement subsides, and a correction begins.
Who will be worse for Bitcoin?
However, there is intrigue here. It is believed that different political parties and candidates can influence the crypto industry differently. The Democratic Party is known for its criticism of the crypto market and its intention to tighten regulation. If a representative of the Democrats wins, we may see a deepening correction. Why? Because the market cares not only about the event itself but also about expectations regarding the actions of the new president. Given that the Democrats may tighten cryptocurrency regulation, the market may react negatively.
Republicans, in turn, are more business-friendly and generally more tolerant of cryptocurrencies. Their policies may stimulate growth, as the reputation of the 'pro-business' party fosters confidence in more liberal economic initiatives. Nevertheless, a correction is likely to happen anyway—it may just be less severe.
What awaits Bitcoin after the elections?
The main principle of investors is to buy on rumors and sell on facts. This can explain why Bitcoin may fall after the elections, regardless of the winner. Traders who bet on growth will start taking profits, and uncertainty about the new president's further policies (whatever their party) will add fuel to the correction fire. Even if the elected president promises 'free conditions' for cryptocurrencies, the market prefers real actions over words. Therefore, after the elections, we may expect a kind of pullback—a time when the crypto market digests what is happening and starts to adapt to new conditions.
So, what should a simple investor do?
If you plan to invest in crypto, be prepared for a possible correction. Bitcoin and the market as a whole have already digested the news background surrounding the elections, and further spikes in the rate may be short-lived. If you are confident in Bitcoin's long-term growth, such pullbacks may even work in your favor—a chance to enter the market at a lower price. And if you are a short-term trader, stay alert: in the weeks following the elections, volatility may increase significantly, and this is a great time to be cautious.
In short, the elections have already been priced into Bitcoin. The future of the crypto market depends more on the specific economic and legislative steps of the new government than on who occupies the US presidency.
