11.3 Weekend BTC, ETH Market Summary: The Market Begins to Gradually Bottom
The strategy on Friday was mainly focused on positioning for short trades. Those who followed the larger trend essentially gained over the weekend, as last week's strong rally formed a daily divergence structure at the top, indicating a clear bearish outlook. It was previously analyzed that this divergence downward is temporary, while the larger monthly trend is still on an upward trajectory. Therefore, this week, after the U.S. elections, there will likely be another significant market movement.
Looking at BTC from the weekly perspective: the overall trend is upward, but after the spike, the 4-hour chart shows fluctuations that have created a bottom divergence. Due to the inverse trend formed by MACD and the candlestick pattern, this bottom divergence indicates a strong bullish outlook. Looking at the weekly sub-chart, both OBV and MACD are showing a continuous retracement structure upwards, indicating a three-push bullish trend. After establishing a bullish outlook, turning to the 4-hour and hourly charts, the upper high is around 69500. Therefore, if it retraces, a long position can be taken here.
From the daily perspective of ETH: it is showing a range-bound upward structure, with the trend chart forming higher lows, but it has not broken above the highest point of 2770, which is significantly weaker than BTC. This week has several important events, particularly focusing on Thursday's non-farm payroll and Friday's interest rate decision, both of which can directly impact the market. Generally, the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle completes within a year to a year and a half. If the Fed chooses to continue cutting rates by 25 basis points in November, the market is likely to break new highs, in addition to the larger technical indicators being bullish. The support below is around 2405, so as long as it retraces here, a long position should be taken, especially in the spot market!
BTC Evening Strategy: Long between 67300-67800, targeting around 69500!
ETH Evening Strategy: Long between 2395-2415, targeting around 2475!
