The hottest is Bitcoin (BTC), which has many possibilities. It can serve as an institutional investment tool, a national asset reserve, and also as a belief for retail investors, making it highly favored by market funds.
Then the market focus is on Dogecoin (DOGE), Trump's fan token MAGA, Harris's fan token Horris, all linked to the U.S. election. Musk and Dogecoin are deeply intertwined, supporting Trump. Harris is also performing well in swing states, so market funds will gather around hot topics.
All of this is normal, so what will happen next?
Let me make a bold prediction:
1. Harris may win the election on the 5th, which is basically confirmed. Many people say it's the Jewish financial magnates, but that's not our concern. The cryptocurrency market will be affected and then stabilize because Harris is starting to pay attention to the digital economy, and it won't be a one-size-fits-all approach. Additionally, there is a high probability of interest rate cuts expected in November;
2. The interest rate cut in November is expected to be implemented, with a higher likelihood of a 25 basis point cut. Bitcoin will rise, altcoins will have a slight increase, and then start to decline as the good news ends;
There is a rule in the cryptocurrency circle that everyone can study, and this can serve as your logic for long-term investment:
1. High-belief mainstream coins have stable capital transactions and volatility. In my view, only Bitcoin fits this description. Ethereum (ETH) may pale in comparison. With the increase of primary and secondary public chains, Ethereum's adoption is decreasing. My personal experience is that it is slow and costly. Unlike Bitcoin, it doesn't have sufficient belief. Bitcoin doesn't need adoption; even if it's just for collection, that's not an exaggeration. It has a fixed supply with no inflation. Under such high consensus, it is a luxury digital artifact. Ethereum itself is an application chain and needs to be evaluated based on adoption. If one day it is truly replaced by a new public chain, it may lose its significance, at best becoming a once-noble relic;
2. On-chain stable high-staking assets, this is easy to understand. You can check this on blockchain explorers; it mirrors the price trends of cryptocurrencies: high staking leads to price increases, while low staking leads to declines;
3. Active address data and high on-chain trading volume. Active addresses indicate high participation on the chain; high trading volume suggests high transaction fees and thus high returns, all of which can be checked with tools.
4. Community activity, the simplest way to gauge this is by looking at the interaction and browsing situation on Twitter. Many Twitter accounts have millions of followers, but their post views and interactions are almost zero; that data is truly misleading;
5. Future concepts with high expectations require some foresight. You need to study the current mainstream hot topics and those that have previously been highly hyped, find commonalities, and see which ones have future hype potential, ensuring that the current pullback meets investment conditions;
6. How to select coins you can firmly hold during market downturns? New retail investors chase price increases, while old investors prefer to buy on dips, as downturns present opportunities to acquire digital assets at lower costs.
I have two standalone courtyard homestays. After following digital currencies for so many years, it’s rare to have leisure time. Friends who are interested are welcome to come and relax at my courtyard.
