October 31, 2024
In the blink of an eye, it's the last day of October, and there are two months left until 2024. I previously estimated that the timing for the bear market bottom reversal would be around the end of the year. If this wave of Bitcoin breaking 70,000 is not a signal for the start of a bull market, then the next two months must be a good time to increase positions. Even if there are short-term floating losses, there's no need to worry too much. If investing in crypto cannot build a certain spot position before a bull market, making big profits will be difficult. Therefore, the next two months will have significant ripple effects on the potential bull market next year.
Understanding the general direction, I think everyone has a sense of it. The core point is to hold spot positions, depending on one's judgment of the market, cash flow, and risk preference. On a micro level, swing trading operations are starting to decrease, leaving some profit behind, and then there's the allocation to altcoins, which can gradually increase in weight. Although the past year has shown us that Bitcoin is the true king, I can tell you for sure that only altcoins can fulfill dreams in a bull market, so it is necessary to bear some additional risks.
In terms of market conditions, Bitcoin broke 2700 yesterday. This wave follows Bitcoin, but the exchange rate has not achieved a breakthrough. Still, even if the exchange rate of Ethereum to Bitcoin is at a historical low of around 0.036, the price is still 2700 USD. Those spreading FUD about Ethereum, where does their confidence come from? As long as your Ethereum was not only bought at high points, the current average cost must be below 2000, and I believe that the target price of 10,000 USD for Ethereum in the bull market has no reason to waver at this point.
This short-term trend still depends on Bitcoin's breakthrough of the previous high pressure. Objectively speaking, this pressure is not small. One cannot say that the altcoins lack a rebound just because the market has not ended. Bitcoin's prolonged horizontal movement at high levels, without breaking through, means it needs to pull back to gather strength again. The bullish sentiment around Bitcoin has been quite strong these past two days, theoretically a small pullback is needed, for example, to 67-68 before going up again. There are 5 days left until the election, and this timing is quite sensitive, with more uncontrollable factors in the market, so be cautious with contracts.
Finally, someone commented on my mention of GOAT and MOODENG fee arbitrage yesterday, so I wrote a dedicated introduction here (Bull Market Weapon: Introduction to Funding Rate Arbitrage), feel free to take a look if you're interested.
