Crypto’s wild bull run cycles are famous, repeating roughly every 4 years. But despite this, losses are rampant. Let’s break down why so many still miss out on profits, even when history seems to map out the game.
1. Anatomy of the Crypto Bull Run Cycle
Each cycle spans about 4 years, with a brutal 3-year bear market, followed by a 1-year bull run. Look at the past two cycles:
2014-2018
Bear: 177 weeks
Bull: 34 weeks
Total: 211 weeks
2018-2022
Bear: 157 weeks
Bull: 47 weeks
Total: 204 weeks
Currently, in the 2022-2026 cycle, we haven’t broken past the previous all-time high. Technically, we’re still in bear territory.
2. Psychology of a Market Cycle
Every crypto cycle is a whirlwind of emotions, playing out in three main phases:
🟥 Red Phase:
Price peaks at a new all-time high. Here, many are complacent, mistaking the top for a “minor pullback.” As prices drop, emotions spiral through anxiety, denial, and panic, until finally hitting capitulation, where many exit at heavy losses.
🟨 Yellow Phase:
Market stagnates. Those who sold feel anger, depression, and disbelief. Eventually, subtle rallies stir hope—but trust in the market remains low.
🟩 Green Phase:
A new rally breaks past the last high, fueling optimism and thrill. People re-enter with renewed faith, riding the euphoria as prices soar… until the next crash catches them off-guard.
3. The Double Trap
Combine these cycles with psychology, and you see why losses pile up:
In the Red Phase, investors hold on too long, mistaking the top for a temporary dip.
In the Yellow Phase, emotions cloud judgment, keeping people sidelined as the market recovers.
In the Green Phase, greed and euphoria take over, causing late entries and missed exit points.
Knowing the cycle and the psychology behind it is crucial. But acting on that knowledge is what separates winners from losers.
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