With the 2024 U.S. general election fast approaching, Donald Trump's rising approval ratings have placed him neck-and-neck with Vice President Kamala Harris. If Trump wins, we can expect significant changes in American and global policies, impacting various areas from the economy to international relations.

Six Key Areas of Change

- Ending the Russia-Ukraine War: Trump promises to negotiate a peace agreement, reducing global tensions and stabilizing the region. This could ease economic burdens on other countries due to sanctions, energy shortages, and higher prices ¹.

- Boosting the U.S. Economy: Trump plans to cut taxes and interest rates, encouraging businesses to expand and create jobs. This could bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and create opportunities for countries like China to increase trade.

- "America First" Policies and Trade Relations with China: Trump's approach may introduce tariffs on foreign goods, protecting American industries. However, this could lead to new opportunities for Chinese companies to enter the U.S. market.

- Traditional Energy Focus: Trump favors policies benefiting oil and gas companies over electric vehicles. This could create a divide between the U.S. and countries like China, invested heavily in electric vehicle technology.

- Social Movements: Trump's stance may shift toward traditional values, influencing policies around education, media, and public life.

- Global Impact: Trump's return could bring a shift in international relations, with countries adapting to a new U.S. stance, emphasizing national interests over multilateral cooperation.

Market Impact

While public interest in the election is high, it's essential to maintain perspective regarding potential impact on capital markets. The election has had little noticeable market impact, with the market focused on corporate earnings ¹. However, a Trump win could bring significant changes to U.S. policy, affecting global markets, trade dynamics, and social trends.

Bull Run Under Biden?

Regarding the potential for another bull run if Joe Biden wins, it's crucial to consider that presidential elections can impact the stock market. Historically, markets tend to be more volatile during election periods but often stabilize afterward. However, predicting market movements based on election outcomes is challenging.

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