Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a 9% gain over the past week, trading at $68,388 and hitting a two-month high above $68,900. With several factors aligning, BTC could be on its way to a new all-time high (ATH). But the behavior of short-term holders may play a crucial role in how fast Bitcoin reaches $75,000.
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🔹 Short-Term Holders in Focus
📈 Highest Inflows: Traders holding Bitcoin for 1-3 months recorded the highest level of inflows as BTC approached $69,000.
💰 Profit-Taking Behavior: These short-term holders are booking profits, which could delay Bitcoin's ATH despite strong bullish trends.
🧮 Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): This metric has been above 1 for over a week, suggesting traders are selling BTC at a profit.
🛑 Risk of Reversal: If the uptrend weakens, more selling could trigger a price reversal.
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🔹 Other Key Factors
🇺🇸 U.S. Elections: Market optimism is growing as investors anticipate the outcome of the U.S. elections and their impact on BTC.
💼 Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Inflows to Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are providing additional bullish momentum.
📊 Break-even Point: Around 1.9 million addresses bought BTC between $66,900 and $69,200, and many are at a break-even point, which could cause further selling once BTC turns profitable.
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🔹 Technical Indicators Supporting a Bullish Trend
📈 Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI at 68 shows strong buying pressure and higher highs, signaling a bullish uptrend.
📊 On-Balance Volume (OBV): The OBV is trending upwards, indicating capital inflows into Bitcoin, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
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🔹 BTC Resistance and Support Levels
🚀 If Bitcoin breaks $69,000, the next key resistance level would be $75,250, forming a new ATH.
📉 However, if profit-taking continues, BTC could test support at the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($65,130).
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🔹 Market Sentiment
📊 Coinglass Data: Shows 60% of open positions are short sellers betting on a failed uptrend, reflecting cautious market sentiment despite the bullish momentum.
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Bitcoin's journey to $75,000 depends heavily on the behavior of short-term holders and overall market conditions. With strong technical indicators and market optimism, BTC could see further gains—but traders should keep an eye on key resistance levels and profit-taking activities.
