1. Most Important:
Political Dynamics & Trump’s Election Odds: Trump's 56.3% winning probability and a potential Republican sweep (70% chance) could boost Bitcoin by creating favorable conditions for risk assets.
Institutional Demand for Bitcoin ETFs: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $555.8 million in net inflows on Oct. 15, signaling growing institutional interest.
Derivatives Activity: Increased open interest on Bitcoin call options ($80,000 strike, expiring Dec. 27) indicates bullish sentiment.
2. Less Important:
Yield Curve Shift & Inflation Impact: The steepening 2s10s yield curve, driven by strong U.S. CPI data, pushes investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge against potential interest rate hikes.
MicroStrategy’s Role: With growing market confidence, MicroStrategy could act as a "Bitcoin bank," potentially engaging in Bitcoin lending activities, supported by BNY Mellon’s exemption from accounting rules.
3. Additional Outlook:
Regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin adoption is expected to grow, supported by the increasing legitimacy of spot ETFs and deeper integration into traditional financial markets. The rally could push Bitcoin toward its all-time high of $73,800 in the pre-election weeks.
