Polymarket’s forecast for a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) falls below 3%, an extremely low figure. However, some experts are optimistic in the long term.

The importance of regulatory changes is a consensus, but the ideal form of these changes is controversial.

Solana: The Unlikely ETF

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has once again lowered the probability of a Solana ETF. Since the site began accepting bets on a Solana ETF, its probability has never exceeded 15%. However, in the past month, this already low probability has plummeted, now standing at just 3%.

Read More: Solana ETF Explained: What It Is and How It Works

Solana ETF probability on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

In other words, a Solana ETF has always been considered a risky bet. However, it still has certain advantages that make it more likely than most crypto assets.

After a long battle, the SEC approved ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the same year, and many experts consider Solana to be a viable candidate to be the third. Brazil has already announced its approval, and there is still hope that this ETF will serve as a valuable test case.

Positive Points?

Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, was outspoken in his rejection via social media.

“It’s hard to imagine new crypto ETFs coming to market under the current administration. There’s no indication that a Solana or XRP ETF is possible in the next year or two, given the current state of affairs,” Geraci said.

For Geraci, in fact, the only hope for a Solana exchange-traded fund would come from the US presidential election, although he has not explicitly endorsed a candidate.

Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, was more optimistic. In a recent interview, he argued that Bitcoin ETFs have faced rejection for ten years. However, the SEC has finally given the green light for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024.

The first approval can open the floodgates, and subsequent wins will come easier.

“In my view, resolving uncertainty is the most important factor. We believe these things will align. It will require regulatory changes,” he added.

Read More: Ethereum ETF: How does it work?

Hougan seemed far less inclined to tie ETF performance to the upcoming election itself. Instead, he asserted that regulatory uncertainty would resolve itself during the campaign, and new ETF efforts would perform better in the resulting clarity. Bitwise plans to lead these efforts through data.

“Bitwise has always led with data in its SEC filings. We’re very excited about the Solana ecosystem. We think it’s robust. We’re doing the work,” Hougan said.

The article Solana ETF Approval Probability Drops to 3% in the US appeared first on BeInCrypto Brasil.