We have compiled the opinions of celebrities from representative institutions and recent positive and negative events in order to have a clearer understanding of the future crypto market trends.

The following is for your reference only, please be cautious when investing!

😀Positive events and bullish outlook

Positive events:

1. Russia allows the use of cryptocurrencies for international trade.

2. The U.S. SEC no longer seeks to restart hedge fund transaction fee disclosure rules.

3. Zurich Cantonal Bank launches Bitcoin and crypto products.

4. Metaplanet has reached a cooperation with the encryption department of Japanese financial giant SBI and will continue to increase its holdings of Bitcoin. Metaplanet has acquired 360 Bitcoins ($207 million) so far, using its main reserve assets as collateral to enhance its ability to obtain equity and debt financing.

5. Data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a monthly net inflow of 975 BTC in August, and the number of addresses holding more than 100 Bitcoins reached 16,120, a 17-month high.

6. The President of Venezuela proposed to return to the path of cryptocurrency and may take a cryptocurrency-friendly stance again in the future.

Cryptocurrency losses fell to an all-time low of $15 million in July and August.

8. Starbucks accepts Bitcoin as a payment method in El Salvador.

9. Greeks.live macro researcher: Cryptocurrency has entered a correction trend, whale users have begun to arrange long positions, and the number of large call options has increased, with most expiration dates selected at the end of September and the end of October.

Bullish:

1. ETC Group Research Director: The illiquid supply of Bitcoin reached 74% of the total, a record high, indicating that the supply shock caused by the halving is actually intensifying, which will bring increasing impetus to Bitcoin and other crypto assets in the coming months.

2. Grayscale: If the dollar weakens and interest rates continue to fall, it will be good for Bitcoin. The main downside risk to crypto valuations is a further rise in unemployment and a possible recession, but U.S. policymakers will start to release money and promote consumption when there are signs of a recession.

3. Rekt Capital analyst: Bitcoin has a strong historical performance in October. Data shows that Bitcoin has only experienced declines in October in 2014 and 2018, both of which were in a bear market cycle. Currently, the market is in the year of Bitcoin halving cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has only seen a single-digit increase in October in 2018 (also a bear market year). Apart from this, October usually brings double-digit increases, with an average increase of 22%.

4. Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto: Bitcoin price is expected to reach $110,000 in 2025. Bitcoin is forming a "cup and handle" pattern, a bullish chart pattern that suggests prices may rise in the future. The BTC high will occur in the fourth quarter of 2024 and may reach $100,000 in the first quarter of 2025.

5. Bitfinex analyst: A 25 basis point rate cut could herald the start of a typical easing cycle, while a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut could cause an immediate surge in Bitcoin prices, but could be followed by a pullback as recession concerns grow.

6. QCP Capital: Bitcoin may have strong support at $54,000, and the options market still shows medium-term bullish signals. The report also mentioned that this week's unemployment benefit application data (September 5) and non-farm payrolls report (September 6) may not have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices, as the impact of recent macroeconomic data on cryptocurrencies has weakened.

7. Analyst: Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's average hash rate has maintained steady growth over the past year and will see significant growth in 2024. Historically, the hash rate has generally moved in line with Bitcoin's price movements, reflecting miners' confidence and more optimistic market sentiment.

8. CryptoQuant analyst: The on-chain indicator Bitcoin Puell Multiple Index shows that Bitcoin is close to a "favorable" buying level. In addition, the low price of Bitcoin computing power may suggest that the BTC price is close to the bottom.

9. Glassnode: Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss indicator has stabilized in the second half of this year, indicating that as the market matures after the halving, a balance has been reached between profits and losses.

10.Real Vision's chief crypto analyst: Bitcoin may reach $150,000 by the end of 2024, and Bitcoin's price trend is expected to enter a "crazy season."

🥺Negative events and bearishness:

Negative events:

1. Bitcoin miners' revenue in August hit a new low this year.

2. According to IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin faces continued selling pressure between $61,700 and $70,500. Since a large number of traders are losing money in this price range, Bitcoin faces continued selling pressure whenever it approaches this level, and many investors seek to break even. This is why it is difficult for Bitcoin to set new highs, and only strong momentum can break through this trend to reach new highs.

3. Farside Investors data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF suffered the largest outflow in nearly four months on September 3, and market sentiment was depressed. Investors from Wall Street banks and hedge funds still held Bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter, but overall capital flows were weak.

4.Matrixport: South Korea’s cryptocurrency trading volume hit a new low this year last weekend.

5. Shengli Securities: Funding Rates indicate that short positions in the contract market are stronger.

6. Spot on chain data shows that Bitcoin’s performance in September has only been on the rise in three of the past 10 years.

7. The Block Pro data shows that the total on-chain transaction volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 15.3% in August to US$377 billion, of which Bitcoin's adjusted on-chain transaction volume fell by 12.1% and Ethereum's fell by 20.2%.

Bearish:

1. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX: If interest rates rise again and market liquidity tightens, Bitcoin may face another pullback.

2. Trader T: Institutional investment in Bitcoin and its derivatives was not active in August. The MSTR-BTC data showed a positive sentiment of +1.1x and a negative sentiment of -1.3x. MSTR-BTC sentiment refers to the market's views and expectations on the correlation between MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock and Bitcoin (BTC). Sentiment means that the market shows a certain degree of inclination towards the correlation between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.

3. Bitfinex report: There could be a 15-20% drop when interest rates are cut this month, and the bottom of Bitcoin could be between $40,000 and $50,000.

4. Wolfe Research analyst: Bitcoin may pull back below $50,000 before a potential rise in 2025. Bitcoin may return to the bottom of the range, the $50,000 low area, in the coming weeks. Unless there are major changes, we will continue to remain bearish on Bitcoin's short- to medium-term price.

5.10x Research: Potential short squeeze pushes up Bitcoin price in the near term, and may face risks in September.

6. BTC Markets analyst: The crypto market may fall due to a combination of factors including the "September effect", due to portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss profits and increased caution before the US election.

7. Crypto data provider Kaiko: The crypto market is currently facing a serious oversupply problem, which may continue to depress BTC prices. Other major holders may also increase selling pressure in the near future. For example, the US government holds more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, and other countries including the United Kingdom, China, and Ukraine also have large Bitcoin reserves.

8. Citi: ETF flows may continue to be disappointing until the market becomes transparent about the outcome of the U.S. economic landing.

9. Analyst Ali: BTC has been struggling to break through $63,250 since June 22. This price level often becomes resistance because short-term holders are more inclined to sell when the price falls below the entry point.

10.CryptoQuant: From a price perspective, if the price of Bitcoin falls below $56,000, the risk of a larger correction will increase.

The current market perception is that there is still a risk of decline before the interest rate cut, and several other major factors such as the election, the US economy, and regulation are still unclear, and the market trend may fluctuate violently at any time. However, institutions are generally optimistic about the long-term upward trend of the crypto market, and whales are also quietly making plans. In short, ordinary investors still need to be cautious in the current situation and pay attention to market changes at all times. Be sure to do your own research before starting!