According to an in-depth report by the authoritative financial media Wu Shuo Information, the Federal Reserve officially disclosed to the public on July 3 the detailed minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting on June 12. This minute not only reveals the complex considerations of the Federal Reserve in the face of the current global economic situation, but also provides us with important clues about the future direction of monetary policy.
The most striking point in the minutes is that as the US inflation rate continues to be high, far exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2%, Fed officials are generally satisfied with the current wait-and-see stance. They generally believe that there is not enough confidence to start a rate cut cycle before inflation pressure is effectively alleviated, so as not to further increase the risk of price increases. This position reflects the Fed's firm determination and cautious attitude in dealing with inflation challenges.
However, the minutes also reveal subtle differences within the Fed. Some policymakers put forward a thought-provoking view at last month's meeting that they should pay close attention to signs that the labor market may weaken faster than expected. These policymakers are worried that if economic growth cools too quickly, it may have an adverse impact on the job market and thus affect the broader economic stability. This concern reflects the difficult choice the Fed faces in balancing economic growth and inflation control.
In addition, the minutes also clearly pointed out that the vast majority of participants observed that the growth of economic activity seemed to be gradually slowing down. This observation is not only consistent with the current economic data, but also indicates that the Fed may need to flexibly adjust its monetary policy according to changes in the economic situation. Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, the Fed needs to weigh various factors more carefully to ensure that the formulation of monetary policy can effectively control inflation and support the continued healthy development of the economy.
