A federal judge this week sided with the prediction market Kalshi’s motion for summary judgment in its legal battle with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This decision opens the door for U.S. citizens to place bets on the upcoming November election. However, the ruling isn’t the final word just yet, as the CFTC can still appeal. Following the judge’s order, the commodities regulator immediately filed an emergency request for a two-week stay.

Kalshi’s Legal Victory Could Change U.S. Election Betting Landscape, CFTC Files Emergency Motion

In a legal twist last year, Kalshi, a financial exchange and prediction market, took the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to court. Kalshi, established in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, allows users to trade on real-world event outcomes. The lawsuit, filed in November 2023, challenged the CFTC’s decision to block the company from offering specific event contracts, particularly those related to betting on the U.S. election, on its federally regulated platform.

On Sept. 6, 2024, Judge Jia Cobb delivered a decision in favor of Kalshi, rejecting the CFTC’s cross-motion for summary judgment. Bloomberg Law reported that Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, called the ruling a milestone. “Election markets are now legal in the United States for the first time in 100 years,” Mansour remarked. On the firm’s website, it states:

Election markets are coming to Kalshi. We did it! Stay tuned for more info, and God bless America!

Paradigm’s vice president of government affairs, Alexander Grieve, shared on X that he was delighted his firm supported the amicus. “Proud Paradigm contributed an amicus in this case, as (if it wasn’t clear already) the outcome of November’s election will have profound impact on the direction of crypto in this country,” Grieve said. “American companies need the ability to hedge political risk,” the Paradigm executive added.

Right after the verdict, the CFTC swiftly filed an emergency motion requesting a two-week stay. They argued that “without the benefit of the court’s reasoning, the CFTC is unable to make an informed decision whether to appeal, nor is it able to fully brief a motion for stay pending any forthcoming appeal.” The regulator further added:
Time is of the essence in the issuance of a stay. The CFTC expects that Plaintiff Kalshi will immediately list the relevant election contracts and that trading will begin as soon as the contracts list. Plaintiff has already announced on its homepage that ‘Election Markets are Coming to Kalshi!’
The news arrives at a moment when Polymarket, a blockchain-powered prediction platform, has seen a significant increase in volume and open interest, thanks to the upcoming 2024 election. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers, including Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, have been pressing the CFTC to crack down on election prediction markets. “The last thing that voters heading to the polls need are bets waged on the outcome of that election,” the policymaker’s letter argued.
What do you think about Kalshi’s win this week and the chance the CFTC may appeal the decision? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
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WASHINGTON — Kamala Harris is looking to neutralize a glaring vulnerability that has jeopardized her prospects since she replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee: voter frustration with high prices.
Harris is talking about the economy in hope of winning over voters who continue to feel nagging economic pain. It may be the most deliberate and clear break she has had with Biden since she took over the ticket.
Biden spent the past year touting "Bidenomics" and insisting that voters would come around and give him credit for a slew of legislative victories, without ultimately blaming him for the high cost of groceries and other necessities.
But Harris is more willing to lean into voter anxiety over the cost of living and pitch herself as the best candidate to mitigate pocketbook pressures. She isn't criticizing Biden. But her tone and message suggest she doesn't want to be cast simply as his protégée.
“We’ve lived through a historic inflation shock,” said a Harris campaign adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity. “That has affected every American economically in different ways, and it takes time for that to work through peoples’ lives.”
Harris has announced a flurry of proposals meant to assure voters that if she is elected she’d enact new laws to cut costs. She is also adopting a more populist message than Biden did when it comes to financial pressures that millions of people confront. Harris is casting profit-minded corporations and landlords as villains who've been jacking up grocery prices and rent.
Voters who've been crucial to Democratic victories in past elections hold a sour view of the economy, polling shows. Gen Z voters under age 30 ranked inflation and the cost of living as their biggest worry, far outstripping abortion, health care, threats to democracy and other issues, an NBC News survey this month found.
Inflation is already dropping. But prices remain about 20% higher than they were during the pandemic.
A CNBC survey of registered voters last month asked whether a victory by Harris or Donald Trump would leave them better off financially or whether their situations wouldn't change. A solid plurality, 40%, said they'd do better financially if Trump won, compared with only 21% who said they'd fare better under a Harris presidency.
Harris says her plans are good policy. But presidential campaigns aren’t think tanks; they’re built to win votes. What Harris is offering could boost her standing among key constituencies with whom she’s lagging or whose vote she needs to maximize.
Her face-to-face debate with Trump on Tuesday night is perhaps her best chance to drive her message that as the daughter of a single mother who struggled to buy a house, she empathizes with people's fears and has an antidote to economic anxiety.
"When I am elected president, I will make it a top priority to bring down costs and increase economic security for all Americans," she said last month in a speech in North Carolina. "As president, I will take on the high costs that matter most to most Americans, like the cost of food."
Appeals to younger voters
Harris has made younger voters who are starting families and buying homes a special focus. She has rolled out plans to give a $6,000 tax credit to parents of newborns, along with a $25,000 subsidy to help first-time homebuyers cover their down payments.
"Clearly, housing has been a big point of pressure for younger voters. She’s speaking directly to that,” said Brendan Duke, who was a senior adviser in the Biden White House’s National Economic Council.
Harris needs to galvanize young voters if she is to re-create the Democrats' winning coalition from 2020. In the NBC News survey of Gen Z registered voters under 30, 50% said they favored Harris, compared with 34% who preferred Trump.
Substantial though a 16-point margin sounds, Biden beat Trump by 24 points in 2020 among voters in that age group, according to a comprehensive study by the Pew Research Center.
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