RecessionOrDip?
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Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a U.S. recession next year from 15% to 25%, highlighting concerns despite a seemingly stable economy. They suggest that while the risk is still limited, the Federal Reserve may need to cut rates by 25 basis points in the coming months. This forecast contrasts with more aggressive predictions from JPMorgan and Citigroup. How do you interpret these differing economic outlooks and the potential impact on markets? Share your thoughts! đđŒ
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Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Probability For Next Year
According to Odaily, Goldman Sachs economists have increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession next year from 15% to 25%. Despite this, they emphasize that there are several reasons not to be overly concerned about a recession, even with a significant rise in unemployment rates. Led by Jan Hatzius, the economists stated, 'We still believe the risk of a recession is limited. The overall economy appears to be in good shape, with no major financial imbalances, and the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut interest rates quickly if necessary.'It is noteworthy that Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Federal Reserve is less aggressive compared to JPMorgan and Citigroup. Hatzius' team anticipates the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, November, and December. In contrast, JPMorgan and Citigroup expect a 50 basis point cut in September. Goldman Sachs' report states, 'Our forecast assumes that job growth will rebound in August, and the FOMC will consider a 25 basis point rate cut sufficient to address any downside risks. If we are wrong and the August jobs report is as weak as July's, a 50 basis point cut in September is possible.'The economists also expressed skepticism about the U.S. labor market facing a rapid deterioration risk. They argue that job vacancies indicate demand remains robust, and there are no apparent shocks triggering a downturn.
-Former Commerce Secretary Warns US Headed for Recession-
Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has warned of an impending U.S. recession due to the lingering effects of pandemic-related stimulus. While Wall Street maintains a more optimistic outlook, citing strong GDP and low unemployment, Ross argues that the economy was artificially inflated by the $5 trillion in stimulus. He points to inflation, high consumer prices, and the over-reliance on government jobs as indicators of a looming recession.
Wilbur Ross Predicts US Recession
Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warned in an interview with Bloomberg last week that the U.S. is moving toward a recession due to the economic aftereffects of pandemic-related stimulus. Rossâ prediction contrasts with the generally more optimistic view on Wall Street, where many analysts believe the U.S. can avoid a recession as gross domestic product (GDP) continues to grow and unemployment remains low.
However, Ross remains bearish, arguing that the economy is now coming down from an artificially propped-up state. Attributing the looming recession to the governmentâs pandemic response, particularly the $5 trillion in stimulus measures, he remarked:
I think the U.S. is headed toward probably a very mild recessionary period, and that shouldnât be too surprising. It was artificially propped up by all the great situations that have prevailed, and all that cash that was pumped into the economy in the aftermath of Covid. I think they overdid that.
He further pointed out that most of the stimulus funds were spent quickly by Americans, leading to a sharp rise in demand without a corresponding increase in supply. This, he said, was a primary cause of inflation.
Ross also noted that the strength of the labor market was partly skewed by the surge in government jobs, estimating that about 30%-40% of post-pandemic jobs were related to government initiatives. He believes this distorted the true economic recovery.
#Binance #Bitcoin #btc #BinanceTurns7 #RecessionOrDip?
Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has warned of an impending U.S. recession due to the lingering effects of pandemic-related stimulus. While Wall Street maintains a more optimistic outlook, citing strong GDP and low unemployment, Ross argues that the economy was artificially inflated by the $5 trillion in stimulus. He points to inflation, high consumer prices, and the over-reliance on government jobs as indicators of a looming recession.
Wilbur Ross Predicts US Recession
Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warned in an interview with Bloomberg last week that the U.S. is moving toward a recession due to the economic aftereffects of pandemic-related stimulus. Rossâ prediction contrasts with the generally more optimistic view on Wall Street, where many analysts believe the U.S. can avoid a recession as gross domestic product (GDP) continues to grow and unemployment remains low.
However, Ross remains bearish, arguing that the economy is now coming down from an artificially propped-up state. Attributing the looming recession to the governmentâs pandemic response, particularly the $5 trillion in stimulus measures, he remarked:
I think the U.S. is headed toward probably a very mild recessionary period, and that shouldnât be too surprising. It was artificially propped up by all the great situations that have prevailed, and all that cash that was pumped into the economy in the aftermath of Covid. I think they overdid that.
He further pointed out that most of the stimulus funds were spent quickly by Americans, leading to a sharp rise in demand without a corresponding increase in supply. This, he said, was a primary cause of inflation.
Ross also noted that the strength of the labor market was partly skewed by the surge in government jobs, estimating that about 30%-40% of post-pandemic jobs were related to government initiatives. He believes this distorted the true economic recovery.
#Binance #Bitcoin #btc #BinanceTurns7 #RecessionOrDip?
$BTC
Last support zone is here. Might try a long here as discussed before,
If 54k doesn't hold we go deep :)
Hopefully I helped you have some cash these months :)
#UnemploymentRate #CryptoMarketMoves #BTCâ #RecessionOrDip?
Last support zone is here. Might try a long here as discussed before,
If 54k doesn't hold we go deep :)
Hopefully I helped you have some cash these months :)
#UnemploymentRate #CryptoMarketMoves #BTCâ #RecessionOrDip?
