According to Odaily, Goldman Sachs economists have increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession next year from 15% to 25%. Despite this, they emphasize that there are several reasons not to be overly concerned about a recession, even with a significant rise in unemployment rates. Led by Jan Hatzius, the economists stated, 'We still believe the risk of a recession is limited. The overall economy appears to be in good shape, with no major financial imbalances, and the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut interest rates quickly if necessary.'It is noteworthy that Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Federal Reserve is less aggressive compared to JPMorgan and Citigroup. Hatzius' team anticipates the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, November, and December. In contrast, JPMorgan and Citigroup expect a 50 basis point cut in September. Goldman Sachs' report states, 'Our forecast assumes that job growth will rebound in August, and the FOMC will consider a 25 basis point rate cut sufficient to address any downside risks. If we are wrong and the August jobs report is as weak as July's, a 50 basis point cut in September is possible.'The economists also expressed skepticism about the U.S. labor market facing a rapid deterioration risk. They argue that job vacancies indicate demand remains robust, and there are no apparent shocks triggering a downturn.

Was Warren Buffett right? 

Bitcoin BTC $52,958 starts the first full week of August with a shock as global stock markets see a record-breaking correction.

BTC price downside is taking everyone by surprise as BTC/USD hits its lowest levels since February.

Down nearly $18,000 in days, Bitcoin is joining an alarming comedown across risk assets worldwide as talk of recession takes hold in the United States.

The speed of the turnaround in crypto market sentiment is a sight to behold — just a week ago, Bitcoin was trading near $70,000, and analysis saw new all-time highs coming next.

Now 25% lower, BTC price action is busy liquidating long positions to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Altcoins are faring worse, with largest altcoin Ether 

ETH $2,331 down nearly 40% in the same period. Even the Japanese stock market has delivered harsher losses than BTC/USD, a nod to the global nature of the current market reset.

What will happen in the coming days is anyone’s guess, but for crypto holders, the main concern is where the bottom might now lie.

Bitcoin has given up — once again — multiple bull market support levels and plunged a significant section of its hodler base into unrealized losses.

Some see only central bank policy intervention saving the day, while others argue that, despite its brutal nature, a stock correction was only a matter of time.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the state of play on Bitcoin and beyond as a new Wall Street trading week begins and a grim sense of uncertainty pervades crypto markets.

Bitcoin price sags under $50K in brutal crypto crash

To say that Bitcoin bulls have lost big is an understatement in the current climate.

Not only is BTC/USD trading at levels last seen 25 weeks ago, crypto liquidations in the past 24 hours have passed $1 billion, as confirmed by monitoring resource CoinGlass.

In total, the combined crypto market cap has lost more than $500 billion over the last three days, setting a yearly record.

“Bitcoin & Crypto are in capitulation as everything drops 10-18% overnight,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, summarized in part of a reaction on X.

Like many, Van de Poppe was taken by surprise as the pace of market losses accelerated in step with the first Asia trading session of the week for stocks.

“Uncomfy in spot,” popular trader Jelle admitted on the day, characterizing the sense of unease across the trading community.

Fellow trader Credible Crypto hoped that $50,000 would at least remain intact as support.

“BTC lows taken, weekly demand tapped, front-running the higher TF zone at 49k (for now), meanwhile $ETH has dived right into it's own HTF zone and nearly pushed through it,” part of his latest X coverage explains.

Credible Crypto added that more proof was needed before establishing likely lines in the sand for the markets, referencing a July chart showing likely areas of mass demand.

“Ideally, BTC never makes it to that HTF demand below 50k and this is the worst of the drop,” he continued.

“I'm inclined to believe this is the case, but we have zero confirmation yet, so will be watching PA to get further signs of a full on reversal.”

Veteran trader Peter Brandt nonetheless warned that further downside could easily result from current levels.

In a recent edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” Glassnode linked high levels of unrealized losses to investors’ risk of panic selling.

“This cohort saw over 90% of their supply fall into a loss in late July, putting them into a financially stressful position,” it wrote.

Glassnode subsequently added that Bitcoin’s “diamond hands,” the long-term holder cohort, remained committed to not selling as of late July.

“Long-term investors currently hold 45% of the network wealth, which is relatively elevated compared to near macro cycle topping events. This underscores that LTHs hold the coins in HODL mode and are arguably patiently waiting for higher prices to divest into market strength,” it suggested.

No talk of buying

Not a surprise, but telling nonetheless — crypto market sentiment is back on the cusp of “extreme fear.”

The latest readings from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reveal a collapse in faith among investors.

On July 29, “extreme greed” was around the corner as markets headed for a retest of all-time highs, but just days later, such a scenario could not be further from reality.

Fear & Greed measured 26/100 as of Aug. 5, and as a lagging indicator, likely has further to fall.

Analyzing the social media landscape, research firm Santiment even suggested that there might not be enough panic to produce confidence in a long-term market bottom and justify a mass buying spree.

“Is this THE dip?” it queried on X.

“Discussions about buying have spiked, but not as much as you may think on such a dramatic drop. Expect for the bigger reaction to come as the US wakes up for their Monday morning shock. Emotional selloffs will only accelerate the timing of crypto's rebo

#RecessionOrDip?