If you chase the rise, it will fall; if you sell it, it will rise

It seems that you will lose money no matter how you play it, and you will die if you go short or long

How should this contract be played?

The fundamental reasons are nothing more than two points

1. Mentality: Once you buy it and get trapped, you panic. Obviously, the direction you opened is not wrong, but you panic when there is a small correction. You are worried that you will be trapped more and more, so you will immediately sell at a loss and leave. This repeats over and over again, and the principal is getting less and less

2. The principal is small, and the position is large. You are afraid of missing the opportunity to get on the train. You can't bear a small correction and can only end up with a liquidation

When playing contracts, only open some mainstream coins, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Open a small position at the beginning, make a plan, and cover the position according to the situation. Don't chase the rise and sell the fall. It's better to miss it than to make a mistake. Because there are many opportunities

If you play with some volatile copycats, it is best to set a stop loss. There may be no bottom when the price drops, and it is unreasonable to pull up the market. You can blow up your short position in minutes

In short, mentality and strategy are very important. People with a bad mentality should not play contracts. The final result will only end in a liquidation$ELF $SOL $BTC #美国6月非农数据高于预期 #德国政府转移比特币 #币安合约锦标赛 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？

Today we use data to talk about why there has not been a general rise in the altcoin season this round?

Use total3 as the altcoin market value, and use the total market value of several major stablecoins as the overall market value of stablecoins.

First, the conclusion: First, before the Fed cut interest rates, the market value of stablecoins did not grow fast enough, and second, the overall market value of altcoins is much larger than the previous round.

From November 2019 to November 2020, the total market value of stablecoins increased from 4.7 billion to 21.3 billion, with a change multiple of 4.53, while total3 increased from 51 billion to 98.6 billion, with a change multiple of only 1.93. Therefore, total3/stablecoin dropped from 10.8 to 4.54, which means that the increase in market value during this period corresponds to a reduction in liquidity leverage. This also laid the foundation for the crazy altcoin season from November 2020 to May 2021. Not only did it not overdraw inflows, but it accumulated rising power.

From November 20 to May 21, the total market value of stablecoins increased from 21.3 billion to 84.7 billion, with a change multiple of 3.97, while total3 increased from 98.6 billion to 886 billion, with a change multiple of 8.98. Therefore, total3/stablecoin increased from 4.54 to 10.45. This period of altcoins with a general increase of 8-10 times took advantage of liquidity leverage and maximized the growing market value of stablecoins.

In this round, from October 23, the market value of stablecoins reversed the downward trend and turned to growth. Until March 24, the total market value of stablecoins increased from 116.3 billion to 139.4 billion, with a change multiple of 1.19, while total3 increased from 318.8 billion to 757.6 billion, with a change multiple of 2.37. Therefore, total3/stablecoin increased from 2.74 to 5.44, which means that BTC has not yet reached a historical high, and the market value growth of altcoins has begun to use liquidity leverage.

This is also the reason why the decline of BTC in this round is only 17% while the decline of altcoins is 50%. In the figure, total3 only fell by 28% in this range, which also means that the decline of altcoins is uneven. And the continuous issuance and unlocking of new coins distorts the indicators, and the decline in market value is less than the decline in the average price of altcoins.
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