Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week cha
$BTC crossed all the highs left from 7 months consolidation and didn't reach ATH by tiny 0.3% đđŒ That will be very cruel, if BTC won't get there before any sort of pullback move. Seems impossible now. But on the other hand, isn't that what market supposed to do - crash majority's expectations? But....
Respect the momentum. Day candle closed bullish and gained enough momentum to push #BTC price higher. Sure, that can be a local top, but to say that we should wait for that momentum to slow down which will result in doji/red candles on daily. But while we have strong bullish candles only, no sense in looking for the top.
The only thing that gives me cautious vibes is that Thursday will be the last day of this month and so Friday opens new month candle. I expect November to continue bullish momentum started in October, but before growing to 80-100k, BTC can dip to create a tiny small buy tail down to 69-70.5k
P.S. There is also a 1H #Bitcoin CME gap at 67435-68185 - I don't usually zoom in that far, ignoring all gaps below Daily. But nevertheless worth mentioning.
I gave you sniper entries for both $DOGE bottom dips đŻđŻ The third one dipped to ~0.127 while I mentioned 0.124 as the lowest possible, so that dip was also predicted. Minimum target achieved â
So far free calls for #DOGE each gave 102% + 78% + 40% (from the last dip) for those who HODLed đ
$HMSTR was a great game, but launch didn't make anyone happy. On this chart we can see: 1) Its a downtrend with nearest target for re-test around 0.0033 2) Before or after that re-test might visit 4H gap left at 0.002745 (chances for that dip are very high) 3) Reversal from downtrend can be confirmed only after acceptance above ~0.00341
#Ethereum reached my minimum bounce target at ~2600 level â
Now $ETH got to find acceptance above same 2600 level. Still look shitty against BTC, so all that USDT progress made only because of BTC pump. If market finally feel confidence in longs, money might flow into #ETH as well.
Zone to buy the dips starts under 2550 đ°
Bullish targets remain around 2920-2950 (middle of week gap).
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#Ethereum went down under developing M20SMA again. Another long buy tail and close above. But tail with volume is good. But low volume on the bounce means that buyers didn't sell nor they didn't buy more, so waiting for another dip. In bullish scenario that dip should revisit buy tail - I'd say most probably 2400-2420 area.
For moderately bearish bounce target I'd mark ~2600 level (you can see on week chart it ain't that far - just around the middle of this week candle). That is a crucial level dividing $ETH future between recovery and dump lower under 2300.
For bullish targets we can mark out 2920-2950 (middle of week gap). But frankly, I wouldn't think about that high before we see #ETH finding acceptance above 2600. Before that its just a daylight dreaming.
$BTC continues pushing higher towards the end of UPTOBER đ Unless something very bearish happens within these last three days, month close should be very bullish. And while there is always a chance to start November with dips (to create at least a small buy tail on month chart), everything whispers that we may count on new ATH next month đ€
For the dips in November most interesting zone is around 67-69k. Dropping below 65150 will break bullish market structure, but before that happens I have no intention to look into that scenario of future.
I've been stressing out that Market Structure remains bullish since HH formed on September 26th. Here is a hint đĄ You can easily unfollow everyone who was calling for 15-40k after that date - they are incompetent and unprofessional technical analysts đ
Lines on the chart: đž73881 - March high (ATH) đž72890 - April high đž72144 - June high đž70081 - July high đž68392 - dev Year VWAP VAH đž66450 - September high
$SEI bounced once from weekly 20SMA and there is a good chance we will see it re-test same level again.
In case of breakdown price should drop to the next strong SR zone around 0.305-0.3165
In case of bounce nearest zone of interest is Daily gap with EQ around 0.4 - the rest depends on PA there. In order to reverse back to low TF bullishness SEI got to grow above 0.42 at least.
Keep in mind that on month chart #SEI still look very bullish.
Since I've mentioned $SOL as this season's altcoins King, here is #SOLBTC chart for comparison. While ETHBTC sucks, #SOL is moving within "bull flag" pattern, very close to another breakout đ
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#Ethereum vs $BTC is a classical instrument to see if alts market is bullish or bearish. Yes, since classical times other influential alts appeared (like SOL), but #ETHBTC remains the main one IMHO. And here we can see total bearishness.
Last week $ETH closed below falling wedge lower trendline. If this week keeps that momentum, we may expect it to drop down to ~0.033 (March'21 close).
If turn bullish and close this or next week above ~0.038 that PA can be taken as first signs of #ETH bullish reversal (and start of alts season)
#Ethereum vs $BTC is a classical instrument to see if alts market is bullish or bearish. Yes, since classical times other influential alts appeared (like SOL), but #ETHBTC remains the main one IMHO. And here we can see total bearishness.
Last week $ETH closed below falling wedge lower trendline. If this week keeps that momentum, we may expect it to drop down to ~0.033 (March'21 close).
If turn bullish and close this or next week above ~0.038 that PA can be taken as first signs of #ETH bullish reversal (and start of alts season)
So glad to see that bullish scenario played out. $BTC broke above 67300 and as expected now doing re-test of developing Year VWAP VAH đ„đ
Don't need trendlines to see that this move is looking bullish, as last week's Thursday and Friday rejections wicks are just 0.6-0.75% above and they surely attract price a lot due to huge liquidity hidden above them. So that move is our of questions. And if BTC close Day above 68843, I don't see anything capable of stopping it on the way to 70081.
What can be bearish? Surprisingly CME didn't form any gaps, although Friday close at 66663 still haven't been revisited. That makes it an attractive level for revisit in Futures, but its not 100% guarantee. Also Day close below dev. Year VWAP VAH can be taken as a sign of weakness. But lets wait for Monday to close before talking about that.
Binance started simple Earn for $SXP with high APR. Trying to save it at all cost. Short/mid term I believe it should help #SXP to stay bullish. And if market reverse back up, that should give it enough bullish momentum to break above that consolidation range.
Drawn setup is for entries under 0.2424 with conditional stop on Day close below 0.212 and minimum target at the top of that range at ~0.34
$SUI went up too far, and obviously very overbought, but bullish marker structure wasn't broken yet. Now within order block left from March.
So I see the following possible scenarios: Bullish: it consolidates within 1.56-2.35 range in a bull flag. And then expends for another leg up into ATH Bearish: correction down to 1.00-1.15
#Ethereum went down under developing M20SMA again. Another long buy tail and close above. But tail with volume is good. But low volume on the bounce means that buyers didn't sell nor they didn't buy more, so waiting for another dip. In bullish scenario that dip should revisit buy tail - I'd say most probably 2400-2420 area.
For moderately bearish bounce target I'd mark ~2600 level (you can see on week chart it ain't that far - just around the middle of this week candle). That is a crucial level dividing $ETH future between recovery and dump lower under 2300.
For bullish targets we can mark out 2920-2950 (middle of week gap). But frankly, I wouldn't think about that high before we see #ETH finding acceptance above 2600. Before that its just a daylight dreaming.
$BTC dumped to the second zone I've marked â Touched 65557. Price action is good for bullish scenario as this dip generated high volume and long buy tail. But for that scenario to be confirmed price has to find acceptance above 67300 at least. And next step - break above developing Year VWAP VAH.
Before that happens there will be dips to 66-66.4k - scary as shit frankly, as in case #Bitcoin lose that blue line on my chart, there will be no long buy tails and 63.3-64k. Your loyal servant already loaded alts, so I'll be f**ked by that move đ Not liquidated of course, but mostly depressed.
And the last scenario for the nearest future is continuation of correction in a form of second leg down to ~64k and possibly lower. That price action still fits into bullish market structure, but delays bullish days for several weeks.
P.S. Friday close at 66662 will be inevitable target for Monday open. Wherever #BTC will be by that time.
#Ethereum bullish re-test of zone in between dev Y VAL and M20sma done â
If current $ETH 4H candle continue what previous started, then my nearest target at 2600 will be reached within this week, maybe even today. Sorry, but no crystal ball can predict what next.
I believe it was the last re-test of M20SMA from above. Either #ETH bounce from here or next dip will end up with dump below 2450 and hunt for liquidity much lower.
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#Ethereum wicked into dev. M20SMA and bounced back above dev Y VAL. Should come back to that zone for bullish re-test once again and if stay there, next will be re-test of 2600 zone. The rest depends on that re-test, but without reclaiming it, $ETH won't grow anywhere and will get stuck within 2450-2600 range.
Amazing how precise that forecast was. $BTC dominance dipped exactly to ~58.3% as I've drawn 6 days ago and now trying breakout đ
Won't try to guess if that impulse move will pump higher or take some time to consolidate, but the target remains the same - zone in between 59.6 and 60%
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Bullish
According to $BTC dominance chart, alts prices in USDT are growing mostly because of BTC, and not because they are bullish on their own. Sure there are exceptions, but that chart includes the whole market.
BTC.D Month chart still very bullish with 12 days till close = bearish for alts Week chart so far very bullish = bearish for alts Day chart - promise 1-3 days of alts-season đ