I've wanted to complain about this for a long time; a whole bunch of people are talking about black swans. Over 95% of people have no idea what a black swan is.
The most important concept of a black swan is that it is an event that no one can predict. If someone can predict it, then it's not a black swan; it's a gray rhino.
There are always people saying that the crash of Bitcoin is a black swan; there's a term in Northeast China that fits you perfectly, called 'abuse of the term'.

You might not believe it, but I still have Bitcoin from 2016. Back then it was over 4000 each. Did you really earn more by going back and forth than by doing nothing?

Here’s a hint: there’s no reason in the square, or it’s just like drawing a random picture to start predicting the market, the more certain and confident they appear, the more nonsense it is. Essentially, it’s just that your backside decides your mind.
It’s highly likely they are about to face a liquidation and are panicking without a plan, or they are perfectly missing the opportunity to get on the boat. Don’t believe it, just treat it as entertainment.

Since 2016, experienced players who have been buying coins are really used to this one-sided rising market.

This kind of market is where most spot holders are collectively bullish, lacking liquidity, and a slight purchase of spot will drive the price up.

Have there been few liquidations in the square these days? If you want to short, you might as well wait for the big trend to short; doing it now can't even be called gambling, it's just giving away money. What’s the difference between shorting now and guessing the peak? The trend is bullish, and if you can guess the peak so accurately, shouldn’t you be going long?