Many fans asked, will Bitcoin usher in a local surge in the market next? The answer is actually two points:
Trump's policy trends
Expectations of interest rate cuts
Usually, Trump's new policies are difficult to implement immediately in the early stage, so the most noteworthy thing in the short term is the expectation of interest rate cuts.
If the expectation of interest rate cuts in March is strong and accompanied by a major economic recession, the market will usher in a decline, otherwise it may rise.
When the probability of interest rate cuts fluctuates between 40% and 60%, the market will show a volatile pattern. At this time, it is best not to have illusions about a sharp rise, and the profits earned should be pocketed in time, and do not blindly chase the rise.
As soon as the economic data came out last night, the probability of a rate cut in March was greatly reduced to about 40%, and the expectation of a rate cut in May remained around 50%.
Bitcoin has rebounded for 8 days, and it is normal to have a pullback, but it is still in a volatile range. Unless the probability of a rate cut in March falls below 20%, the probability of falling below 91,500 is small.
Next, we will focus on the key economic data on the 10th and 15th, as well as the speech after the FOMC meeting on the 29th, which will determine the next trend of the market.
At this stage, we must remain highly vigilant! Buy low and sell high, do not sell at a low price, and avoid chasing high prices when the market rebounds in the future.
If you hold the spot of mainstream coins, you can temporarily lie flat and do a good job of risk control of the maximum retracement; if it is a small-cap MEME altcoin, don't consider replenishing your position to lower the average price for the time being. After all, there are still a lot of economic data to be released this week, and the market's negative and positive will be repeatedly pulled, and it is easy to be hurt by mistake.
The safest strategy is to lie flat temporarily and wait for the end of the wash phase. Spot can be entered in batches, and contracts are waiting for the right side to enter!