The analysis of the decline: I see many friends saying it was due to the JOLTs job openings data released at 11 PM Beijing time, and of course, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data. Mainly, both of these data were too good; job openings indicate that the unemployment rate may decrease, leading to more job opportunities, and a PMI above expectations also signifies an economic upturn. The increase in both data points suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its pace of interest rate cuts, meaning two times or even fewer.

Therefore, some friends believe this is the reason for the decline. Indeed, looking at the candlestick chart, the drop at 11 PM had the highest trading volume, while the drop before 11 PM might be due to risk aversion? It's not very certain. From the hourly chart, I see the decline starting from 5 PM; before this, my personal view was that the JOLTs job openings data would not have much impact, but it seems I might be wrong.

Why did I have this thought? Because JOLTs job openings do not equal the unemployment rate and non-farm employment data. Although there is correlation, it is not a 100% relationship, including the small non-farm as well. Of course, it is indeed possible that I was wrong, and I need to be more careful in the future. I have always believed that the more important game will be in the non-farm data, not in the JOLTs. However, the market has given the most direct reaction; the performance of the US stock market does not look good either.

Next, on Wednesday night at 9:15 PM, there will be the small non-farm data, and on Thursday, the US stock market will be closed, but there will be Challenger job cut data. On Friday, the non-farm data will be released. Following this trend, if today’s decline is indeed due to the JOLTs, then the employment data in the next two days may affect the market, and the ultimate game will still be on Friday’s non-farm data.

There’s no use in saying too much about the non-farm analysis now; let’s talk about it on Thursday or Friday. Let’s first see if the sentiment will turn around in the next two days. After all, the current decline has returned to levels seen after Christmas. At present, panic selling may be more prevalent, and sentiment may readjust.