Table of Contents:
6. Contract liquidation map, intuitively reflecting risk control positions;
7. Trading Analysis;
8. Token Overbought and Oversold Situation.
9. Hotspot Interpretation: The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 is decreasing; could it reach a historical high?
6. BTC Contract Liquidation Map, intuitively reflecting the main risk control positions.
According to the latest data from the CoinAnk liquidation map, if the BTC price breaks above $104,000, $904.8 million worth of short positions will be liquidated;
If the BTC price falls below $98,200, $2.144 billion worth of long positions will be liquidated.
These data intuitively reflect the main capital risk control positions and can also serve as a reference for trading or entering.
7. Altcoin Index Trading Analysis.
Currently, the latest value of the altcoin index is around 59, with a low of 43 in this round, fluctuating below 50 for more than ten days. Since January 1st, there has been a significant rebound, breaking the balance position of over 50 and showing an upward trend, which is also evident in the performance of altcoins, with a certain degree of rebound in recent times.
We have previously analyzed altcoin indices, generally, when the altcoin index is below 25, it is a relatively good time to enter. If you are worried about missing the market, you can start entering in batches after it falls below the midpoint of 50. Positions can be built in a pyramid style. If you enter with a light position below 50, based on the overall increase of the top fifty altcoins in this phase, it is slightly larger than BTC, making it a better profit.
8. Token RSI Overbought and Oversold Situation:
According to the RSI indicator filter, at the daily level, HIVE, SPX, and AIXBT are in or near the overbought zone due to recent price increases. If they rise to critical points or resistance levels, they may face corrections in the future; PHA, VANA, and others have fallen in price recently and are in or near the oversold zone. If they drop to important support areas below, they may face rebound opportunities in the future.
Of course, overbought and oversold indicators lean towards left-side trading ideas, which involve guessing bottoms and escaping peaks, while the Matthew Effect and right-side trading ideas are completely opposite, as the strong stay strong and the weak stay weak. An objective trend-following trading approach may allow overbought and oversold tokens to continue their recent strong or weak trends.
9. Hotspot Interpretation: The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 is decreasing; could it reach a historical high?
Since Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States, the correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets has been relatively high. However, we are now beginning to see Bitcoin's performance leading the S&P 500 index (relative to their normal volatility range). Over the past three years, most of the community has viewed cryptocurrencies as a 'high-leverage tech stock.' However, signs in early 2025 indicate that Bitcoin may break free from the conventional linkage with the global stock market. Historically, when the correlation between the crypto market and the stock market is low or even nonexistent, it often heralds the most significant bull markets. If Bitcoin and other altcoins can continue to grow in January this year without relying on the S&P 500 index, it will be a strong signal indicating a high likelihood of reaching new historical highs.
We believe that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index will change in early 2025, with Bitcoin beginning to show a trend of leading the traditional stock market. This phenomenon may be related to Bitcoin gradually maturing and forming independent market dynamics. Historically, periods of low correlation between the crypto market and the stock market are often accompanied by significant bull markets for Bitcoin, which may indicate that Bitcoin is forming its own store of value and investment case, rather than just representing high-risk tech stocks. There are many predictions that Bitcoin's price will rise higher in 2025. These predictions, along with the continued growth of Bitcoin ETFs and the warming market sentiment, indicate that investor confidence in Bitcoin remains strong. If Bitcoin can continue to grow independently of the S&P 500 index, it will be a strong signal of the market's recognition of its long-term potential, possibly heralding the achievement of new historical highs.
