Currently, the overall market is relatively tense. When can we expect the altcoin market we are looking forward to to emerge?
Today, we will analyze the market by combining the market share of BTC and ETH with K-line charts, providing a clearer and more intuitive understanding of the market with data charts!
① From the cyclical perspective of the bull market:
In the past, the bull market time was approximately 3-4 years from the bottom of the bear market to the end of a new bull market. The last bear market bottomed out, and this bull market started at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. Therefore, it can be inferred that this year can basically be said to be the last year of this bull market.
② Historical trend analysis:
In the previous bull market, although there were some differences, the overall cycle trend was that Bitcoin would start breaking through historical highs first, followed by Ethereum leading altcoins gradually into the main rising wave. Due to the involvement of the U.S. government and institutions in this round of the bull market, large funds are more inclined towards Bitcoin, leading to a market drain, making altcoins harder to operate than in any previous bull market. However, the expected market trends will still come because capital speculation also focuses on profit and loss ratios.
In the last round, if Bitcoin is calculated from the bottom of around 3,500 to the peak of 69,000, it is basically close to 20 times. In fact, from the first rise to 60,000 and then a pullback to 30,000, Bitcoin had already topped out, after which it began a prolonged selling behavior lasting more than half a year. During this period, various altcoins performed their final push, covering Bitcoin's selling.
With the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices, its market capitalization is also increasing. Each round of increase is actually shrinking. It can be inferred that if this round pulls from the bottom around 15,000, calculating at ten times would be around 150,000. The current price peak is already close to 110,000, and the profit and loss ratio is not that high anymore. Moreover, this round of Ethereum is different from the previous one. In the past, it mostly followed Bitcoin indirectly. This round has lagged significantly and has not yet broken through the previous high, making it very cost-effective with massive space available. This can explain why many institutions have recently been increasing their positions in Ethereum. Additionally, it is certain that many institutions will exchange Bitcoin for Ethereum.
③ From the trend chart and market share analysis:
As shown in Chart ①, Bitcoin's market capitalization share has drawn a trend resistance line since 2013, and it has just hit near this trend resistance line, resulting in a short-term sharp drop, and the upward trend line of the small cycle has also been broken. The secondary rebound has not shown divergence, and the indicators at the bottom are in a breaking state, so the trend may be relatively slow.
Comparing Chart ② ETH market capitalization share trend chart, Ethereum has moved through a flag-shaped channel since 2021, and the current price is just at the support area at the bottom of the channel. The downward movement of wave 4 within the channel has been completed, and the MACD at the bottom is in a golden cross state. It is currently building a base, and there is a high probability that it will begin a 5-wave rebound.
From a technical chart perspective, as shown in Chart ③, after Bitcoin broke through its historical high, it surged from 65,000 to 110,000. Comparing Ethereum's trend chart, it can be seen that Ethereum is currently moving in a similar oscillating trend near 65,000, building strength and accumulating, forming a large cycle triangle convergence pattern. After such a long period of consolidation and accumulation, the indicator volume is already in the adjustment completion phase on the right side. Many current altcoins are still at bear market bottom prices and accumulation zones. Why not push the price up? It’s because they are waiting for Ethereum to completely break through and become strong so that these altcoin traders can start to act.
It can be inferred that the subsequent market this year will definitely be dominated by Ethereum, and there is a high probability that it will be the year of the bull market we have been looking forward to. As the Ethereum exchange rate rebounds from the bottom and the market share of Bitcoin declines, the increase in Ethereum's price will surpass that of Bitcoin, meanwhile leading altcoins to also exhibit their expected market trends, completing the final sprint of the bull market while covering Bitcoin for selling at the end! Cherish the current chips and patiently hold on until the wind comes!
Market confidence is growing stronger. Both mainstream coins and altcoins are quietly rising. Have you seized the opportunity?
The AI concept remains a target favored by hot money in the market, and the Meme series is waiting for its explosive period. The narrative of Meme in 2025 is still very sexy, with both AI and Meme showing an upward trend from the bottom.
Even the ordinals (ordi sats) are experiencing a weekly increase; when the market comes, everyone makes a profit. But whether one can buy coins that increase first and by a large margin will depend on technology to predict and prepare in advance.
I believe that in the current market, all sectors are steadily moving upwards, but there has not yet been a rotation.
80% of the position is placed in relatively stable sectors: Holding major coins such as ETH and SOL, which I can see are likely to outperform Bitcoin in the next period. The spot positions of these coins, including Bitcoin, will remain unchanged.
Additionally, 20% of the position for short-term sniping: The 20% allocated for short-term sniping is to address the uncertainty of when the bull market will start rotating. However, there are some low-market-value coins rising by 30%-50% daily, so setting stop losses is crucial to prevent major market declines, expecting a 50% short-term profit with a very high risk-to-reward ratio.
The second wave of altcoin season is about to lead!!!
Looking back at the recent correction from December 18 to January 3, many people's floating profits have shrunk significantly. Friends who mainly hold altcoins may have fallen back into floating losses.
So Pepe has been thinking about a question lately: Can the bull market ensure a smooth escape at the top? What would constitute the perfect escape plan from a bull market in the crypto world (Is it really just greedy thinking about selling at the elusive highest point)?
The latter part of the bull market is essentially a major retreat; all thoughts and actions should focus on how to protect one's hard-earned gains.
In the latter part of the bull market, one must have the awareness of attacking while retreating. What does it mean to attack while retreating? The long-term holding mindset must switch to a medium-term holding mindset, and multiple chaotic coins should gradually concentrate on 1-3 quality coins (for easier liquidation operations), ultimately leaving only Bitcoin and USDT when the market clearly reverses!
At that time, it will just depend on who runs faster!
