Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a price reversal, but the upward momentum is gradually recovering from a long-term trend perspective. As market sentiment fluctuates, we are at a critical turning point, with both technical and macro factors suggesting possible upward momentum. Today, let's discuss a few key points: overbought signals, the buying spree of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the Trump Effect, and the RSI performance on the weekly and monthly charts. Are you ready? The future of Bitcoin may be even more exciting!
1. Overbought Signals: Possible Pullback in the Short Term
From a short-term technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's stochastic RSI (Relative Strength Index) is already in overbought territory, especially indicators over 4-hour, 8-hour, 12-hour, and 1-day timeframes show price downward pressure.
This means that in the coming days, we may see a pullback in Bitcoin's price, with a potential short-term decline.
However, it is worth noting that the RSI often stays near the top for a while, and may even continue to rise after a price pullback. Therefore, while we see overbought signals now, it does not mean that a significant retracement will necessarily occur. A short-term adjustment is just to accumulate momentum, and the next wave upward may be stronger.
2. US Spot Bitcoin ETF: Capital Inflow Catalyzes Price Rise
In addition to technical factors, another driving force behind Bitcoin's rise is the investment frenzy in the US spot Bitcoin ETF.
On Friday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded the fifth largest net inflow, with a total purchase amount reaching 9.36K BTC, equivalent to $907.3 million.
If this scale of capital continues to flow in, Bitcoin's price is likely to rebound to the historical high of $108,000 or even break through it. This indicates that institutional investors' interest is on the rise, and the market's liquidity may bring stronger upward momentum.
3. Trump Effect: The Cryptocurrency Driving Force Before the Presidential Inauguration
There are two weeks left until Donald Trump is inaugurated as President of the United States. Historical experience shows that during Trump's administration, the cryptocurrency market often benefited from the loose measures in his policies, especially in uncertain macroeconomic environments.
If Bitcoin experiences a pullback in the short term, we expect that the period before Trump's inauguration will become the next important price increase opportunity. This event could bring a new positive atmosphere to the market, pushing Bitcoin's price to rise again.
4. BTC Upward Trend Line: Support Line Remains Strong
The daily chart of Bitcoin shows that the price has remained above the upward trend line from 2021 over the past few months. This trend line is crucial for the price movement of Bitcoin. If the price breaks below and confirms below this line, it may trigger market concerns.
Currently, the price has just touched the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and has seen some local rebound. Although the stochastic RSI is at the top, the price remains above the upward trend line. As long as this line is not broken, the long-term upward momentum remains unchanged.
5. Weekly and Monthly RSI: Strong Signals of Momentum Recovery
From a longer time cycle perspective, Bitcoin's weekly and monthly RSI is giving strong bullish signals.
In the weekly chart, the fast line of the stochastic RSI is bending upwards and may find support at the 0.50 level. If this crossover pattern forms within this week, it could trigger greater buying pressure, pushing Bitcoin's price further up.
The monthly chart is even more exciting: the current monthly RSI indicator is at the top, with the blue line breaking above 0.80. If the orange line also breaks through next, price momentum will peak, possibly ushering in the final wave of a bull market.
Conclusion: Bullish Momentum is Strong, and the Coming Weeks May Be Full of Opportunities
Although Bitcoin may experience a pullback in the short term, the overall trend shows that upward momentum is gradually recovering. The inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the market driving force from Trump's inauguration, and the strong signals from the RSI indicator all provide strong support for Bitcoin's future development.
The coming weeks will be a crucial moment for Bitcoin to see if it can break through the historical high of $108,000.
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