The start of 2025 has left the Bitcoin market full of uncertainty, but also full of potential! As the price of Bitcoin fluctuates near the $100,000 mark, the market's expectations for BTC's future are sharply divided. Will it break through all-time highs and break through $100,000, or will it suffer a deep correction and return to the $76,000 support level? Today, we analyze it all in depth and reveal the 5 key factors you need to know.

1. The psychological barrier of $100,000: a watershed for the bull market

Bitcoin bulls are racing to break through $100,000 early this year, a six-digit mark that is crucial for the market. Traders use it as a landmark level to test whether the bull run is still going strong.
At this point, BTC/USD will face significant liquidity pressure, and the market's reaction is crucial. Currently, the liquidation levels on exchanges are concentrated around $100,000, making this price point critical. Breaking through this level may trigger a new round of short squeezes, pushing Bitcoin to continue rising.

However, a report from CoinGlass shows that despite increasing liquidation pressure in the market, BTC traders are prepared to face the challenge of the $100,000 resistance level. Whether this will become a turning point remains to be seen.

2. 'Deep correction' remains a hidden concern for the market.

Despite Bitcoin's price gradually recovering, many market observers are still concerned about a deep correction in Bitcoin.
Famous trader Aksel Kibar stated on X that the target price for BTC's long-term chart is $137,000, indicating that there is still room for further increases in the future. Meanwhile, Cheds Trading mentioned that the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart may face the risk of failure, suggesting that a significant drop may not occur in the short term.
However, Keith Alan, the founder of Material Indicators, warned that the 21-day moving average and the 50-day moving average on the daily chart are about to form a 'death cross,' which could be a lagging bearish signal. A deeper correction can only be avoided if the Bitcoin price remains above the 21-day moving average. If it falls below this level, the market may retest the support level of $76,000.

3. Federal Reserve policy: The core focus of market attention.

The future direction of Bitcoin depends not only on technical aspects but also crucially on the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
As the U.S. economy faces the dual pressures of inflation and stagflation, the outlook for the crypto market becomes more complex. The Federal Reserve's decisions may directly impact Bitcoin's price fluctuations.
Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are weakening, with the December meeting minutes about to be released, which may challenge Bitcoin's strong upward momentum. Whether the Fed's 'quantitative tightening' (QT) policy will shift to 'quantitative easing' (QE) and inject new liquidity into the market will be the focus for the coming month.

4. Absence of retail investors: Changes in market sentiment.

The response of Bitcoin's retail investors to the market is undergoing a dramatic change.
As the Bitcoin price approaches the historical high of $108,000, trading volume in the retail market has significantly decreased, and participation has notably dropped. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that such changes often suggest a market adjustment is forthcoming.
When retail demand changes exceed 15%, it usually appears in advance when prices reach local peaks. The current retail participation in Bitcoin is sluggish, which may provide a good buying opportunity for subsequent price increases, as historically, whenever retail interest declines, the market tends to rebound.

5. Choices of short-term holders: Bearish sentiment rises.

For short-term holders (STH), the current market profit situation is nearing the breakeven point.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that since Bitcoin's price broke through $108,000, the profits of short-term holders have significantly shrunk. Currently, investors holding BTC for less than 155 days are waiting for the price to break through key levels.
If this sluggish profit situation continues, the decrease in market demand may lead to deeper price adjustments. Therefore, changes in sentiment among short-term holders may have a significant impact on the market, bringing bearish risks to Bitcoin.

Conclusion: The tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market direction remains uncertain.

Whether Bitcoin can break through the $100,000 mark or experience a deep correction is still difficult to conclude. With the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies, market participants' emotional fluctuations, and the absence of retail investors, the future of BTC is full of uncertainty.
However, the key to the bull market still lies in whether it can break through the psychological barrier of $100,000, which will be the focus of attention for the time to come.

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