Bitcoin's Trump-led rally may encounter challenges by the end of January, with the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions emerging as a potential roadblock, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
Key Insights:
Federal Reserve as a Critical Risk Factor:
Thielen highlights the Federal Reserve's upcoming January 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as a "primary risk" to Bitcoin's performance. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates an 88.8% probability that the federal target rate will stay between 425 and 450 basis points.
Potential for Price Volatility:
Bitcoin’s price dropped nearly 15% to $92,800 following the December FOMC meeting, where the Fed reduced its projected 2025 rate cuts from five to two. Thielen projects Bitcoin could end January in the $97,000–$98,000 range, with a brief pullback expected before Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on January 15.
Short-Term Rally Dynamics:
Thielen predicts Bitcoin could rally ahead of Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration, fueled by optimism over potentially favourable CPI data. However, momentum may taper off as the market anticipates the Fed's interest rate announcement at the month's close.
Long-Term Growth Potential:
Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, John Glover forecasts Bitcoin to dip to $89,000 before rebounding to $125,000 by Q1’s end. Glover suggests Bitcoin could hit $160,000 in late 2025 or early 2026—a conservative estimate compared to VanEck and Bitwise's predictions of $180,000–$200,000.
Market Sentiment Remains Strong:
Despite short-term headwinds, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index returned to the "Extreme Greed" zone on January 5, scoring 76 out of 100 as Bitcoin rallied to $98,850. This reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, despite temporary pullbacks.
While Bitcoin’s January rally holds promise, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies and broader macroeconomic conditions could significantly influence its trajectory. Investors are advised to monitor inflation data, spot ETF inflows, and institutional participation for a clearer picture of Bitcoin’s outlook.
