1. If a crisis can be covered, it is an opportunity
On December 19, Fed Chairman Bao said good afternoon and said the Fed would not hold Bitcoin. Then cypto turned downward, which may have poured cold water on those enthusiastic market participants.
But in fact, what Powell said has no impact on Trump's coming to power and the formulation of cypto-friendly policies. In his speech, he mentioned that interest rate hikes are not considered in the next 25 years, but the number/intensity of interest rate cuts will depend on the data. In fact, in my opinion, this time is not even a crisis, but the expectations of enthusiasts have been dashed.
After that, on the 20th, Bitcoin fell to a low of 9w2. Considering the subsequent interest rate cuts and Trump taking office as scheduled, I increased my position at this time. Now Bitcoin has reached 9w8. As it turns out, the 19th was a small crisis, but it can also turn into an opportunity.
Let us look back at history again to discover this simple truth.
The arrival of Covid-19 in 2019 brought the entire world to a standstill, including the US. In order to stimulate the economy, the Federal Reserve began to flood the market with money, which led to the subsequent bull market in the US stock market and the ICO craze in the cryptocurrency circle.
Compared with the COVID-19 pandemic, Powell's speech is really a drop in the bucket. The COVID-19 pandemic is a crisis for all of humanity; but the US government and the Federal Reserve can still solve it by flooding the market with money, and once the crisis is resolved, the sharp drop caused by the epidemic also heralds a sharp rise after the crisis is resolved.
The same principle applies to the arrest of TON's founder and the staking of CZ.
So if a crisis occurs and you can predict that it will be resolved later, that is the best opportunity, buy it! As Churchill said: Never waste a crisis.
2. Give high valuation incentives to big players in the market based on what they need
(Balaji Prophecy) It is mentioned that: Cryptocurrency is turning the whole world into investors.
How to understand this sentence? Balaji divides startups into two categories: technology arbitrage and regulatory arbitrage. AI companies are typical technology arbitrage companies. Search made Google successful, and recommendation made ByteDance successful.
But Airbnb and Uber are essentially regulatory arbitrage, allowing ordinary people to run hotels and taxis without a license, and such companies need to be popular enough to avoid being shut down.
Cryptocurrency is also a regulatory arbitrage in finance. Cypto is a circle that focuses on marketing. Why? Because the whole circle is crazy about attracting people and funds from the web2 world, and it will continue to flow until it becomes the financial infrastructure of the whole world...
OK, so we know that marketing is very important in the cypto field. So what are the hottest projects in the cypto circle now? How do they attract web2 people to join and stay?
RWA (real world assets) - can directly link web2 assets, which is equivalent to packaging web2 funds and bringing them to web3. Typical projects include US Treasury bonds (Ondo), stablecoins (Usual, Ena, Circle), real estate (Prcl), and RWAfi (plume) specially designed for this purpose.
Layer1/Layer2/Re-staking - Infrastructure, each layer1 means an on-chain ecosystem, an on-chain ecosystem can attract and retain users and funds, not only limited to transactions, but also financial management, interest generation, staking airdrops...
AI agents/applications/frameworks/models/computing power/data——AI is the pinnacle of the technological wave and a technological revolution for the entire world. Web3 certainly cannot miss it. Regardless of whether it is a marketing gimmick, web3 needs AI. Similarly, web3 is naturally adapted to the incentive layer in the construction of AI agents and AI applications, and can serve as an airdrop expectation for Agents.
Meme - marketing, marketing, and marketing. Meme coins are the easiest to spread, and most of the myths of getting rich in the cryptocurrency circle come from this. Nothing is easier than spreading meme coins. Maybe only one picture is needed, and a meme coin is born. However, for memes themselves, the market needs to constantly innovate, and new memes appear in waves to attract attention.
For the same example, you can also look back to the first half of the year, when Binance launched small games and meme coins on Telegram. In fact, during that period, the big names in cypto (exchanges led by Binance) also wanted to attract users on Telegram to cypto. Many tokens of the TON ecosystem were launched on Binance, which was also a highlight.
However, after the first two or three tokens attracted users, the subsequent TON mini-games lost their function of attracting traffic, because at this time, the users who could be attracted by web3 had basically been covered, and the rest were unnecessary.
So you can also see that the price of tokens in the subsequent TON ecosystem has been falling since its listing. The total market value of the newly launched tokens is basically only 20 million US dollars. This is actually the role of market pricing.
So, in the end, to sum up: cherish the opportunities brought by every crisis and know what the market needs, so that you and I can be at ease in the Shura field.
