Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, shows a strong optimistic attitude towards the prospects of the Solana ETF listing in the US in 2025, even suggesting that the 77% listing probability estimated by the prediction market Polymarket is 'too conservative.' This perspective reveals the industry's expectations for the Solana ETF and injects more bullish sentiment into the market.
Probability of Solana ETF listing: Why so optimistic?
Polymarket's prediction upgrade
According to Polymarket data, as of January 2, 2025, the predicted probability of the Solana ETF listing has risen to 84%. As a highly active cryptocurrency prediction platform, this data reflects the growing confidence of market participants in the listing of the Solana ETF.Trump's election and cryptocurrency-friendly policies
After President Trump’s victory in the November 2024 election, the expected policy environment for the cryptocurrency market is positively shifting. Trump has openly stated that he hopes to build the US as the 'global cryptocurrency capital,' providing potential momentum for the listing of more cryptocurrency ETFs.Trends in applications from VanEck and 21Shares
In June 2024, VanEck and 21Shares submitted a spot Solana ETF listing application to the SEC, but in August, the SEC raised objections regarding whether Solana should be classified as a security. Nevertheless, industry insiders believe that as the policy environment relaxes, this obstacle may soon be overcome.
The significance of the Solana ETF listing
Consolidation of technology and market position
As an efficient public chain, Solana's technological advantages have been validated in multiple blockchain performance tests. The listing of the Solana ETF will not only consolidate its position in the market but may also further enhance its ability to attract institutional investment.Increasing bullish sentiment among market participants
If the Solana ETF is successfully listed, it will be the third major cryptocurrency ETF following Bitcoin and Ethereum, potentially opening the door for applications for other altcoin ETFs (such as Polygon or Avalanche), thereby promoting market diversification.Improved maturity of the cryptocurrency market
The launch of ETFs is generally regarded as an important step towards the convergence of traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency markets. If the Solana ETF is successfully approved, it will further enhance market confidence and attract more mainstream investors.
Challenges and variables: The road ahead is not smooth
The SEC's change of attitude
The SEC currently holds reservations on whether Solana should be classified as a commodity. The resolution of this issue will largely determine whether the ETF can be listed on schedule.Market volatility and policy risk
Despite the optimistic sentiment injected into the market by the results of the US elections, the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment and potential changes in regulatory policies remain significant potential risks.Accuracy of market predictions
Although Polymarket’s prediction markets perform well in certain scenarios, its models are not entirely reliable, and the actual market conditions may deviate from predictions.
2025 may be a key year for the Solana ETF
Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, expresses an optimistic forecast that aligns with the general expectation of the market regarding the future development of cryptocurrency ETFs. The probability of the Solana ETF being listed in 2025 is indeed high, but this process still needs to overcome multiple challenges related to technology, policy, and market. If the Solana ETF is successfully listed, it will bring more funding to the Solana ecosystem and may push the entire cryptocurrency market into a new stage of development.
Do you also see a bright future for the Solana ETF? Or do you think other cryptocurrency ETFs will take the lead in capturing the market? Feel free to leave a comment and share your views!
