Solana [SOL] made a strong comeback in 2023 and 2024, surging from $8 to a high of $264. However, analysts have a mixed outlook for the altcoin in 2025.
The bullish camp, led by Mert Mumtaz, founder of Solana-based development platform Helius, believes that new validator client software Firedancer and ETF approval could be key catalysts.
Bullish Catalysts for SOL
For those unfamiliar, the Firedancer client is designed to handle 1 million transactions per second (tps) under optimal conditions.
It will also improve network reliability by having another validator client if one encounters an issue.
Interestingly, since Christmas, the market has become more optimistic that the SOL ETF will be approved in July 2025, with Polymarket’s odds surging from 58% to 71%.
Therefore, the ETF prospect and Firedancer could boost the value of SOL. However, the unlocking of over $2 billion in tokens in March 2025 should also be considered.
$2 billion SOL unlock warning
As one of the main supporters of the Solana chain, FTX’s bankruptcy in 2022 is the main reason for SOL’s plunge to $8.
As part of its bankruptcy reorganization, Galaxy Digital and other investors acquired most of the defunct FTX Properties SOL holdings at a discount.
However, they will be locked for a period of time, with the first unlocking taking place in March 2025.
Messari data shows that 11.2 million SOL tokens worth more than $2 billion will be unlocked in March 2025. This may trigger market selling pressure.
Additionally, SOL underperformed Ethereum [ETH] in December, a trend some experts predict could continue into the first quarter of 2025.
In fact, one analyst said ETH could offer better gains than SOL, noting that the SOL/ETH ratio, which tracks SOL’s relative price performance compared to ETH, is weakening.
“Solana is undeniably great, but the risk-reward just isn’t there in 2025 compared to ETH.”
If SOL/ETH rises, SOL will outperform ETH and vice versa. SOL/ETH has fallen back to the low of the channel range; a break below this level could lead to more funds flowing from SOL to ETH.
However, a decisive breakout of the channel lows could provide SOL with an additional lifeline in 2025.
In short, SOL's 2025 outlook appears to be at a crossroads, facing key bullish catalysts and resistances. $SOL
