What is the cottage season? My understanding is very simple
1. First break through the price high in March.
2. Break through the 21-year historical high again.
3. Process of capital inflow-capital outflow
Funds flow into BTC ➩ BTC dominance increases ➩ Altcoins are drained ➩ Altcoins fall
Funds outflow BTC ➩ BTC's dominance declines ➩ altcoins absorb funds ➩ surge
This chart is based on a statistical analysis of the performance of the top 100 tokens by market cap, dividing these tokens into two categories: "Breaking through the March price high" and "Not breaking through the March price high", with 50 tokens in each category. The data source is the relevant information shown in the chart.
1/From the price perspective, altcoin prices are still hovering at bear market levels.
Originally, I wanted to focus on the top 100 tokens by market capitalization to see how many of them broke through the price peak of March, but I found that the number was not enough.
So I continued to expand the scope until I reached the top 115 tokens by market capitalization, which finally provided a sufficient sample size.
This means that among the top 115 tokens by market capitalization, only 50 have successfully broken through the price peak of March.
Only 15 tokens have broken through the historical high of 2021 (excluding new coins), and only 29 tokens have outperformed BTC when benchmarked against the March peak increase.
🤖 This might be an opportunity; how to choose the targets?
- As long as the project is still operational, with the code repository and social media updates ongoing, and TG, Discord still have administrators, it is highly likely that institutions have already intervened to gain control.
- When the timing is right, a suitable profit-loss ratio can yield you three to five times in just seven days or even one day, bringing forth the potential of three to four years of consolidation all at once. The explosion of altcoin season can complete Bitcoin's two-year bull market process in just seven days.
2/From the emotional perspective, the sentiment is still bearish.
Right now, every group is silent. The only wish among group members is to break even. Although Bitcoin's price continues to set new highs, the assets in group members' wallets are constantly shrinking.
3/How to determine altcoin season, 4 indicators you must know
1️⃣Altcoin Index
Tracking market sentiment indicates whether the focus is on Bitcoin or altcoins. If 75% of the top 50 altcoins have performed better than Bitcoin in the past 90 days, it is altcoin season; otherwise, it is Bitcoin season.
2️⃣BTC Dominance Rate (Market Capitalization Ratio)
Funds flow into BTC ➩ BTC's dominance increases ➩ Altcoins are drained ➩ Altcoins fall
Funds flow out of BTC ➩ BTC's dominance decreases ➩ Altcoins attract savings ➩ Soar
3️⃣TOTAL 2
TOTAL2 represents the total market capitalization of the top 125 altcoins excluding BTC, which can show the inflow of funds into altcoins.
4️⃣ETH/BTC exchange rate
From the market cycle perspective, the flow of funds generally is:
BTC—ETH—Mainstream Altcoins—Sub-Mainstream Altcoins—Meme
Bitcoin is faith, Ethereum is the leader, and Ethereum's strength is a prerequisite for altcoins to surge. When the Ethereum exchange rate strengthens, it is appropriate to pay attention to altcoins.
How to choose the right tokens and seize this bull market opportunity? You can pay attention to the Elon Musk concept Mars Dog Marvin (7055) community with tens of thousands of members, an excellent topic IP, a top-tier team continuously promoting, an independent charity fund, and led by Crypto Labs. Don’t miss the chance to go to Mars with Marvin!
