Bitcoin's Current Situation

  1. Price Movement:

    • Bitcoin is currently priced at $94,695, showing a slight decline of 0.52% after recently reaching higher levels.

    • It dropped after hitting a resistance point at around $108,162.

  2. Chart Patterns:

    • The chart shows a rising channel (two upward-trending lines marking support and resistance).

    • Bitcoin reached the top boundary of this channel, which acted as resistance (a point where the price struggles to move higher).

    • In past cycles (yellow circles), Bitcoin also faced resistance at similar levels before pulling back.

  3. Support Levels:

    • The next support level (a price where Bitcoin might stop falling and stabilize) is near $85,000. This is marked as a strong support level on the chart.

  4. Breakout:

    • A clear breakout above $108,162 could signal a move toward even higher targets, beyond the current channel.

$BTC Weekly Chart

Fundamental Reasons for Rejection:


Bitcoin’s decline is further due to an unclear Fed rate path ahead, with K33 Research analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman noting that the central bank may pause rate cuts in the coming months.

“We expect this week’s FOMC to contribute to the market’s volatility,” K33 Research analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman wrote in a note, adding:

“Following the FOMC, quiet macro weeks await, potentially setting the stage for Bitcoin momentum to further materialize during the holiday season.”

What Might Happen Next?

  1. Scenario 1: Pullback and Consolidation

    • Bitcoin could continue to drop slightly as it cools off from its recent rally.

    • The price may stabilize near $85,000 before attempting to climb again.

  2. Scenario 2: Bullish Continuation

    • If Bitcoin breaks through the $108,162 resistance, it could move sharply higher, possibly targeting $120,000 or more.

Key Observations from the Chart

  1. Trend Strength:

    • The rising channel suggests Bitcoin is still in a long-term uptrend.

    • This pullback seems like a normal correction in a healthy bullish market.

  2. Historical Behavior:

    • In previous cycles, Bitcoin has behaved similarly, pulling back after hitting the top of the channel before resuming its upward trend.

  3. Volatility Ahead:

    • Given the Fed's unclear interest rate path and market uncertainty, expect Bitcoin's price to remain volatile in the short term.

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