The price of Bitcoin fluctuated between 92,000 and 99,000 this week.
A quick overview of important events this week (12/22-12/28)
Bitcoin dynamics: Bitwise warns that BTC may face a "painful decline" but it is also a good opportunity to buy at the bottom; Matrixport is optimistic that 90,000 to 95,000 is the bottom; Glassnode studies that the retracement of each cycle has weakened, and it may have entered the end of the bull market.
Interest rate: The probability that the US Fed will not cut interest rates in January next year is over 91%; the Bank of Japan hinted that conditions for raising interest rates are ripe.
Musk: xAI completed $6 billion Series C financing with participation of big names.
South Korea: The number of crypto investors has exceeded 15.59 million, and over 30% of the population are speculating in cryptocurrencies.
Japan: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba responds to Bitcoin reserve stance.
Taiwan: Nvidia intends to set up its overseas headquarters in Taiwan!
Hong Kong: Hong Kong Gold Exchange launches "digital gold tokens".
China: Monetary policy will "turn to easing" next year.
Russia: Allow Bitcoin to be used for international trade payments to counter sanctions.
Forbes: "5 Major Trends in the Crypto Industry in 2025".
Coingecko: Meme coins are king in narrative rankings, and AI, RWA, and Solana ecosystems are rising.
Bloomberg analyst: We can expect to see a Dogecoin ETF after Trump takes office.
MicroStrategy: Plans to issue additional shares to raise $42 billion in three years to increase Bitcoin holdings; recommends Amazon CEO Bezos to purchase $600 million in Bitcoin.
This week's trading market data changes
Sentiment and sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
This week’s sentiment index rose from 73 (Greed) to 74 (Greed), remaining in the (Greed) range for the entire week.
2. Funding rate heat map
This week, the highest Bitcoin funding rate reached 12.43% and the lowest was 2.72%.
The funding rate heat map shows the changing trends of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies, with colors ranging from green for zero rate to yellow for 50% positive rate, and black for negative rate; the white candlestick chart shows Bitcoin price fluctuations, which contrasts with the funding rate.
3. Sector performance
According to Artemis data, the average increase of blockchain sectors this week was (0.4%), among which Centralized Exchange, Staking Services and Bridge ranked the top three with (65.1%, 4.7% and 2.5%) respectively.
This week, the increases in Bitcoin and Ethereum were (-1.7% and -3.2%) respectively.
The three worst performing areas were RWA (-13.7%), Data Availability (-6.3%), and Bitcoin Ecosystem (-6.3%).
Market Liquidity
1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization and stablecoin supply
This week’s total cryptocurrency market capitalization data shows that it has increased from $3.32 trillion to $3.36 trillion. BTC accounts for 55.75% of the market, and ETH accounts for 12.09%.
The total supply of stablecoins, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased by $510 million, or about 0.27%, from $189.82 billion to $190.33 billion this week.
2. Potential purchasing power within the exchange
Data shows that this week, there was a net inflow of exchange assets, especially a large inflow of USDT after the US election. This phenomenon may be that investors are preparing for the upcoming market volatility, and the inflow of funds into exchanges may mean an increase in purchasing demand in the short term.
In addition, the highest single-day net inflow of funds in December reached 15.8 billion US dollars, and the highest single-day net inflow of funds this week reached 6.1 billion US dollars, showing that market liquidity is sufficient, but it is significantly lower than in previous weeks.
3. Encryption Dynamics
The overall sentiment of the crypto market has improved this week, with PHALA, Horizen, and Adventure Gold leading the way with increases of +158%, +97.7%, and +83.6% respectively, and mainstream coins generally rising. According to Blockchaincenter data, the current altcoin seasonal index is 47 (down 0).
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Funds
Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $366.7 million this week.
2. Bitcoin contract open interest
According to the data, Bitcoin contract holdings in exchanges rose rapidly this week, rising from $60.28 billion and then falling back to $58.6 billion. The price then fell, but the holdings remained high, indicating active leverage trading in the market.
3. Bitcoin historical monthly return rate
According to historical data, Bitcoin's return rate was +0.79% in week 55. This performance was lower than the historical weekly average return rate (+3.02%) and higher than the median (+0.05%), and was better than the return rate in the previous week, week 51 (-8.78%).
4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin (US$97,000) is in the "consider fixed investment" range.
5. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index remained in the negative range most of the time this week, indicating relatively weak demand in the US market, similar to last week's trend. However, the negative premium was more significant this week and Bitcoin prices fell significantly during several corrections, further reflecting the US market's sensitivity to downward prices and the pressure of sluggish demand.
A positive premium could indicate that U.S. investors have stronger buying power than global markets.
6. Bitcoin net profit and loss performance
Bitcoin's realized net profit and loss indicator shows that market sentiment has retreated and the market structure has surpassed this year's high. Although the market has performed strongly in the short term, investors still need to be wary of potential correction risks, especially after a rapid rise, the market may see profit-taking.
7. Long-term Bitcoin holders
According to on-chain data, the net positions of long-term Bitcoin holders have declined significantly recently, and the red bar chart shows that selling pressure has gradually increased since October. Especially when the price of Bitcoin broke through new highs and approached US$100,000, the net position changes of long-term holders turned from positive to negative, indicating that some investors chose to take profits at high prices.
The current selling pressure has exceeded the peak in March this year. In early December, the price of Bitcoin tentatively exceeded the US$100,000 mark several times. However, the reduction of positions by long-term holders has exerted significant selling pressure on the market. While market sentiment remains positive, the behavior of short-term holders (STH) needs to be closely watched and whether the market can absorb the additional supply pressure.
8. Bitcoin on-chain purchasing power
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin’s long- and short-term holder data this week shows that as the price rises, the positions of short-term holders (red line) increase significantly, while the positions of long-term holders (blue line) continue to decrease. , especially when the price of Bitcoin repeatedly tested the $100,000 mark in early December.
This trend reflects the phenomenon of funds flowing from long-term investors to short-term speculators. The increase in the proportion of short-term holders indicates that the market risk appetite has improved, but it also brings the possibility of increased volatility risk. The reduction of long-term holders shows that there has been an increase in high-level profit-taking behavior, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether short-term funds can support price increases.
9. Short-term on-chain cost benchmark band
This week, the Bitcoin short-term on-chain cost benchmark band shows that the price is close to the upper track (red line) of $122,900, reflecting the high market sentiment and the increased willingness of short-term investors to make profits. The realized price (blue line) for long-term holders is $86,400.
Important technical indicators of Ethereum
1. Ethereum Spot ETF
Ethereum ETF funds saw net inflows of approximately $226.5 million this week.
2. DeFi market total locked value (TVL)
Data this week shows that the total locked value of the DeFi market has increased from US$122.354 billion to US$127.814 billion last week.
