According to the latest data from blockchain analyst CryptoChan, long-term Bitcoin holders (excluding addresses that have held their coins for more than seven years) currently hold 69.2% of their holdings. Historically, this ratio has typically dropped to between 57% and 62% at the peak of a bull market (see Figure 1), suggesting that the market is entering the latter stages of a bull market.
Combined with the analysis in Figure 2, the data reveals an important pattern in the halving cycle by comparing the change in the holding ratio of long-term holders in the halving cycles of 2016, 2020, and 2024: during the price increase period after each halving, the holding ratio of long-term holders gradually decreased as the market temperature increased, and reached the lowest point in the cycle at the peak of the bull market. This trend suggests that the Bitcoin market is gradually approaching the peak area.
The current long-term holding ratio of 69.2% is very consistent with the historical pattern of the halving cycle. If this ratio continues to fall to the historical peak range (57%-62%) in the future, the market may be approaching the peak phase of this bull market. For investors, this is an important risk warning, but it also means that they need to carefully consider their positioning strategy, grasp the market rhythm to minimize the risk brought by potential volatility.