The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last night showed that the number of initial unemployment benefit claims in the U.S. fell to 219,000 after seasonal adjustment in the week ending December 21, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week and lower than the expected 224,000. It was the lowest level in nearly a month, indicating a cooling of the labor market, but companies still avoided large-scale layoffs. It also hinted that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates further.
At the same time, the overall unemployment rate in the United States is currently 4.2%. According to data from the past decade, although the labor market is tending to be weak, the unemployment situation is relatively mild and has not yet shown signs of deterioration.
Currently, the market expects the US Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in January next year, with a 91.4% probability of keeping the federal benchmark interest rate unchanged in the current range of 4.25% to 4.5%, consistent with predictions from a week ago.
Last night, after the US employment data was released, the US stock market and Bitcoin did not show significant reactions. As 2024 is about to end, US inflation is almost back to pre-pandemic levels, and the economy continues to grow. The labor market still shows resilience, thus economists expect the risk of a US economic recession to decrease, and a soft landing may be achievable.
In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline yesterday afternoon, dropping from $98,500 to around $95,500, causing many long positions to stop loss and exit. As of the time of writing, the price has rebounded to $96,887, up 1.1% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 4H chart of Bitcoin, the current price is fluctuating near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase in the short term. The upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands show an expanding trend, indicating that future volatility will increase. If the price continues to break upward through the upper band, it will enter a strong bullish trend. Conversely, if it falls below the lower band, it will continue to decline.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator in the 4H chart of Bitcoin, all three KDJ line values are operating in the oversold region at a low position, and the J line shows signs of turning upward, indicating a rebound after being oversold. If the K line successfully crosses above the D line to form a golden cross, it will further confirm the rebound trend; otherwise, caution is still required for the possibility of price decline.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator in the 4H chart of Bitcoin, the DIF line is about to cross the DEA line upward at a low position, which will form a golden cross pattern, indicating a possibility of further price rebound in the short term. The MACD green histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening, which also confirms the rebound signal.
Comprehensive analysis shows that current indicators suggest a potential short-term rebound demand, especially as the golden cross signals of MACD and KDJ gradually emerge. Important resistance levels to watch are 97,000-99,000, and support levels are 94,000-95,000.
In summary, Daxian gives the following suggestions for reference.
Long Bitcoin near 96,300 with a target of 97,500-98,000 and a stop loss at 95,800.
Long on Ethereum near 3400 with a target of 3500-3550 and a stop loss at 3355.
Giving you a hundred percent accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the correct ideas and trends. After all, teaching a person to fish is better than giving them fish; suggestions can earn for a moment, but learning ideas can earn for a lifetime! What matters is the mindset, grasping trends, layout of the market, and position planning. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, ensuring that your investment decisions and management are on the right path.
Time of writing: (2024-12-27, 17:45)
（Wen - Daxian discusses currency）Hereby declare: There is a delay in online publication, the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in investment fields such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, and stocks, having been involved in the financial markets for many years, with rich practical experience. Investment carries risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please follow Daxian discusses currency for discussion and exchange.#2025有哪些关键叙事？
