Last night, Bitcoin's price fell, while other altcoins did not follow its trend. Looking back at this round of market activity, it is not difficult to find that altcoins as a whole did not experience a significant rise; rather, individual altcoins briefly led a small market surge before returning to calm. Ethereum (ETH) has also consistently failed to break past previous highs, while Bitcoin stands out, leading the market on its own.
Analyzing the trend of this round of market activity, I believe the main reason is the continued division between Bitcoin and the current cryptocurrency market. Since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the liquidity and funds brought in have mainly concentrated on Bitcoin itself and have not effectively spilled over to other tokens. Behind the seemingly bustling market, other altcoins, apart from Bitcoin, still appear relatively weak. This explains why Bitcoin has been able to maintain consolidation at high levels while other altcoins continue to decline; Bitcoin is repeatedly setting new highs while altcoins are bleeding continuously.
It can be said that this round of market activity is a solo performance by Bitcoin, or we may say that the comprehensive bull market we expect has not truly arrived yet. Currently, many altcoins' movements are still influenced by Ethereum. Perhaps only when Ethereum starts to break through and initiate a new round of upward movement can we truly welcome the long-awaited comprehensive bull market.
In other words, the current cryptocurrency market is still in a state of differentiation, with Bitcoin galloping ahead, while other tokens remain relatively quiet. Only when key tokens like Ethereum also start to gain momentum can the entire market potentially usher in true prosperity.
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1. ENA
Ethena Labs and World Liberty Financial (WLFI)—a decentralized finance (DeFi) project supported by elected President Donald Trump—are collaborating to enhance the liquidity of stablecoins and provide WLFI platform users with more attractive rewards. The highlight of the collaboration is a governance proposal that suggests integrating the synthetic digital asset sUSDe stablecoin developed by Ethena Labs as a core collateral asset in the Aave-supported protocol of WLFI.
Once this proposal is approved by the WLFI governance community, users will be able to use sUSDe as collateral to obtain other stablecoins like USDC and USDT. The proposal is expected to be voted on within the next week, which could unlock a series of new features for the WLFI platform and attract more users.
Meanwhile, the price of Ethena's native token ENA has fluctuated, currently trading in the range of $1.05 to $1.10, stabilizing around $1.04 after a brief decline.
This collaboration holds enormous potential for both parties. Incorporating sUSDe into the collateral asset category may not only attract more users to join the WLFI ecosystem, thereby enhancing its liquidity, but it may also drive demand for Ethena's stablecoin, boosting market confidence and increasing the value of the ENA token. This collaboration marks a strategically significant step for the two platforms in the DeFi field.
2. SOL
SOL has shown significant price fluctuations recently, declining by 18.80% in the past week and by 30.50% over the past month. However, despite these declines, Solana has achieved a growth of 34.97% over the past six months. Currently, SOL's trading price is between $205.85 and $239.87, indicating considerable volatility.
From a technical indicator perspective, the current market sentiment leans bearish but may also indicate an impending turnaround. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 38.29, nearing the oversold area, which may suggest that selling pressure is weakening and buying may soon come in. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) value is -1.376, indicating that the market is in a downtrend. The stochastic oscillator is also at a low level, specifically at 26.34, which similarly suggests that a price reversal may be imminent.
Regarding support levels, Solana's recent support point is $188, and if it falls below this price, it may further decline to the next support level of $154. On the upside, SOL faces resistance levels of $256 and $290. To reach the first resistance level, Solana's price needs to rise by about 8%. In contrast, if the price falls to the recent support level, it would indicate a decline of about 10%.
In addition, the 10-day moving average is currently at $182.89, while the 100-day moving average is at $193.52. Both indicators suggest that the current price of SOL is above recent average levels. Therefore, although the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term, Solana still has certain upside potential in the medium to long term.
3. XRP
XRP has performed exceptionally well in the past six months, with an increase of 366.94%. This remarkable growth fully demonstrates the strong interest and active trading in the cryptocurrency market. Particularly in the past month, XRP's price soared by 77.14%, showcasing a strong upward momentum. However, it is worth noting that XRP's price experienced a 7.81% pullback last week, indicating some short-term market volatility.
Currently, XRP's trading price range is between $2.03 and $2.73. On the upside, XRP faces the first resistance level at $3.02; if this level is successfully broken, it may further test the higher resistance level of $3.73. On the downside, the recent support level is $1.61; if this support level is breached, it may further decline to the secondary support level of $0.9041. These key price levels are crucial for assessing the future price trend of XRP.
From a technical indicator perspective, the current market sentiment is relatively neutral. The 10-day simple moving average (SMA) and 100-day SMA are at $2.24 and $2.28, respectively, with a small difference between the two, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase. The relative strength index (RSI) value is 42.72, which means XRP shows neither overbought nor oversold signals. The MACD indicator is slightly negative (-0.0059), which may suggest a slight bearish sentiment in the market.
In conclusion, by closely monitoring these technical indicators, we can better gain insights into the potential price trend direction of XRP in the short term. Investors should remain vigilant and flexibly adjust strategies according to market changes.
4. AAVE
The recent surge in AAVE, as we discussed earlier, is mainly attributed to its total value locked (TVL) significantly exceeding the peak of the last bull market, while its token price remains at over $300, far below the last bull market's $670, clearly indicating an undervalued state.
Additionally, the Trump family's WLFI project has chosen to increase its holdings in AAVE, which we have previously analyzed, so I am not surprised by the upward trend of AAVE. However, in the short term, I believe that AAVE's upward potential may be nearing saturation, as it has already reached the previous high of $390 today! At this moment, early investors are already in a position of doubling their investment.
In the current market environment, many cryptocurrencies have experienced significant declines, while AAVE has risen against the trend, with the potential to reach new highs this year. Although the overall market environment appears slightly weak, AAVE's strong performance is indeed noteworthy. From a long-term investment perspective, I believe it is entirely possible for AAVE's price to reach $800.
5. SUI
SUI, as an outstanding representative of the MOVE ecosystem, has a remarkable background—originating from meta and belonging to an American project backed by robust capital. In the public chain technology field, SUI is praised as the fastest public chain today, dominating the field with its unparalleled speed.
As the cornerstone of the web3 industry, the performance and capacity of public chains play a pivotal role in the future development of the industry. Looking back at the development history of public chains, SUI is likely to become a standout in the fourth generation of public chains, leading the trend.
Despite SUI showing impressive strength, the activity level of its ecosystem still needs further activation. Currently, Tether has not issued USDT on SUI, which undoubtedly limits its liquidity. However, this also leaves significant room for growth for SUI, indicating its unlimited potential.
For investors, it is advisable to closely monitor high-quality ecosystem projects on SUI, such as navx, cetus, and blue, to potentially uncover investment opportunities. When formulating investment strategies, it is recommended to include SUI in the purchase plan and avoid blindly chasing highs. A pyramid buying strategy can be adopted, gradually increasing positions during price pullbacks to reduce investment risk and improve return on investment. In summary, SUI is undoubtedly a cryptocurrency that investors should closely monitor, with significant potential.
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