Your analysis points out several key aspects regarding price volatility and market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin (BTC). Below is a detailed analysis:
1. Outflows from exchanges
• Bitcoin outflows from exchanges reached 2.5 billion USD in the past week, often seen as a bullish signal. When investors withdraw BTC to their private wallets, it indicates a tendency to hold long-term rather than sell, reducing selling pressure in the market.
2. Positive Funding Rate
• The funding rate at 0.0081 indicates that long positions are dominant, reflecting bullish expectations from futures traders. This is a positive factor supporting the short-term outlook for BTC.
3. Resistance Level of 100,000 USD and Ichimoku Cloud
• Bitcoin is currently trading below the Leading Span A of the Ichimoku Cloud, a signal indicating that selling pressure remains high. The 100,000 USD level serves as a strong resistance and needs to be broken to confirm an upward trend.
• If the price surpasses the Ichimoku Cloud and the resistance level of 100,000 USD, the next target could be the all-time high (ATH) of 108,388 USD. However, if it fails to break through, the price may drop to the support area around 95,690 USD.
4. Market Momentum
• The price drop of 5% in the past week but a significant increase in outflows is a conflicting signal, but it may indicate that investors are waiting for an opportunity to push the BTC price back into an upward trend.
Conclusion
• If BTC breaks through the resistance level of 100,000 USD, the likelihood of reaching ATH is very high due to positive sentiment and long-term holdings. However, failing to surpass this level could lead to a short-term correction.
• Investors need to closely monitor technical indicators, cash flow on exchanges, and especially the developments at this important resistance area.