Do you guys realize what’s happening?
Do you realize how strong this bitcoin bull market is?
This is my third cycle now, and I’ve studied and owned this thing for over 10 years.
Let me tell you why this time is different . ₿
First off, this is not financial advice. I do not have a crystal ball. Take your own risks after doing your own research. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.
Let’s move on.
This is going to be pure Hopium so strap in and get ready.
Everyone always says that we are fools if we think that this time is different.
But throughout history there have been moments and times where things have actually been different.
These times usually catch people off guard and this is when the majority of people are wrong.
So how is this time different?
1. ETFs
This is the first cycle where I feel we are truly de-risked. The biggest fund in the world, black rock, is telling people to put 2% of every portfolio in the world in the bitcoin.
This is because of its CAGR and Sharpe Ratio impact as well as its mitigation/hedge against currency risk.
The bitcoin ETFs have been the most successful financial product launch of all time. By far.
ETFs needed to be approved by government. Therefore the argument that bitcoin is a bubble or a tulip is completely dead. Because governments don’t allow Ponzis to have legal approval.
So ETFs and institutional adoption that comes with it including ultimately pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are a massive change and a massive difference this time.
Let’s move on.
2. NATION STATES
multiple countries now have bitcoin on their balance sheet and are actively buying. There’s rumors that the Saudi’s are accumulating and very connected to people are making strong hints that all hell is about to break loose.
On top of this you have nation states like Germany selling all their bitcoin and then having the price of bitcoin double and the politicians looking like complete idiots.
This is how you get voted out.
Everyone is starting to open up to bitcoin.
This is game theory playing out.
We used to talk about this 5 to 10 years ago. We used to dream about it.
It’s happening. Countries and corporations are now trying to front run the US SBR.
Which brings us to:
3. STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE (“SBR”)
There are bills circulating right now in multiple states including Pennsylvania and Texas for state-led SBRs.
The states are frontrunning the federal government!!!
There’s also talk about executive order by Trump for an SBR.
The SBR can come in many forms, but the bottom line is once every country sees that we have adopted bitcoin, they will need to follow suit.
Technology adoption accelerates and bitcoin is being adopted even faster than the Internet.
Bitcoin is the fastest adopted network in history.
4. PRO BITCOIN ADMINISTRATION
Trump came to the bitcoin conference. He literally said “NEVER SELL YOUR BITCOIN”…
Half of the people he has put into his cabinet are extremely pro-digital assets and own bitcoin.
State puppet Gary Gensler is STEPPING DOWN.
5. CONCLUSION
I’ve never seen anything like this.
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT.
Way different.
I’m not saying there’s not going to be the typical cycle boom and bust, but I think we could very easily go to $1 million a bitcoin in the next year.
My price targets:
6. PRICE TARGETS
1 ₿ = 1 ₿… it’s all about what you could purchase with that ₿.
@JeffBooth (X) recently did a pretty incredible podcast discussing this and you should take a listen: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-bitcoin-did/id1482455669?i=1000680160944
Since most of us are still operating in a Fiat mindset and use dollars, even though ultimately we need to get away from this, that might take some time. So for now let’s try and put a dollar amount on bitcoin for this cycle top.
Assumptions:
1. No Black Swan
2. SBR
3. Accelerated adoption
4. $MSTR corporate strategy adopted widely
5. Continued easy monetary policy from the FED
6. Retail FOMO arrives (again… they/we are always “exit liquidity”
My price target for bitcoin over the next 12 months in dollars is:
$785,000
This is where I think bitcoin will peak before it starts selling off and likely something unexpected happens and we fall to:
$314,000 in the low of the subsequent years.
7. BONUS. $MSTR PRICE
@saylor ‘s Company $MSTR is all the rage right now as they have figured out a crazy glitch in the system.
I’m not gonna get into what I think about it, but I will tell you it worries me.
That being said, I THINK IT’S A WHILE BEFORE ANYTHING CRAZY HAPPENS
$MSTR goes to $2,500 in the next 12 months and splits.
Everyone gets girlfriends.
