Bitcoin’s uptrend trajectory unfolds in distinct phases, each with a characteristic timeline, percentage movements, and unique impacts on the market. By analyzing these phases through a timeline lens, we can better understand the market dynamics and plan strategies accordingly.
Phase 2: Re-corrections During the Uptrend (Weeks 1 to 8)
Timeline:
Bitcoin’s price starts climbing steadily for 6 to 7 weeks.
Around the 7th or 8th week, the market experiences its first major re-correction.
Price Movement:
During the initial uptrend, Bitcoin can gain 30%-50% from its halving baseline.
Corrections during this phase typically range from 20% to 30%, resetting overbought conditions.
Altcoins often see sharper corrections, with declines ranging from 40% to 50%.
Market Behavior:
High volatility dominates this phase, with sharp price declines followed by rapid recoveries.
Accumulation opportunities emerge for both Bitcoin and altcoins, attracting savvy investors.
Example:
In the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin’s price surged from $1,000 to approximately $1,800 over six weeks, followed by a 30% correction to $1,250 in the 7th week.
Phase 3: Sustained Uptrend (Weeks 9 to 32)
Timeline:
The sustained uptrend phase begins around Week 9, following the recovery from the initial correction.
This phase typically lasts for 16 to 24 weeks, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows.
Price Movement:
Bitcoin’s price may rise another 100%-200% from its corrected level.
Corrections during this phase are shallower, ranging from 10% to 20%.
Altcoins begin recovering and can outperform Bitcoin, with gains of 200%-400% in leading projects.
Market Behavior:
Retail investors re-enter the market, driven by FOMO (fear of missing out).
Institutional adoption accelerates, providing additional support for Bitcoin’s price.
Altcoins with strong fundamentals or narratives start gaining traction and outpace Bitcoin in percentage terms.
Example:
In the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin rallied from $30,000 to $60,000 over 24 weeks, with corrections of 15%-20% along the way.
During this period, Ethereum gained over 400%, rising from $1,200 to $4,000.
Phase 4: Altseason (Weeks 33 to 48)
Timeline:
Altseason typically begins after Bitcoin stabilizes at or near its peak, around Week 33.
This phase can last for 12 to 16 weeks, concluding the post-halving cycle.
Price Movement:
Bitcoin’s price stabilizes or experiences slight declines of 5%-10%, as profits rotate into altcoins.
Altcoins see parabolic gains, with leading assets surging 500%-1,000% or more.
Low-cap altcoins experience exponential growth, driven by speculation.
Market Behavior:
Bitcoin dominance decreases significantly as altcoins outperform.
Speculative mania peaks, often leading to unsustainable valuations in some projects.
Example:
In early 2018, following Bitcoin’s peak at $20,000, Ethereum surged to over $1,400 within 12 weeks.
Ripple (XRP) and Cardano (ADA) experienced gains of 1,000%+ during this period.
Historical Perspective and Key Takeaways
The post-halving rally typically follows a predictable timeline with distinct phases, each offering unique opportunities for traders and investors.
Re-corrections in the early uptrend phase (Weeks 1-8) allow for accumulation, while the sustained uptrend (Weeks 9-32) drives significant gains.
Altseason (Weeks 33-48) represents the final phase, offering exponential returns on altcoins as Bitcoin stabilizes.
By aligning strategies with these timelines and understanding historical patterns, investors can maximize returns while navigating the inherent volatility of the crypto market.
These timelines are educated estimates based on past cycles but are not guaranteed to repeat exactly. Market behavior is subject to change, so they should be used as a guideline rather than a strict rule.