Bitcoin suffered a heavy blow for two consecutive days, retreating from 10.8w to 9.2w. Not only cryptocurrencies, but also global capital markets have generally fallen. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P have all experienced rare oversold. The reason is that the Federal Reserve has conveyed hawkish remarks on future interest rate changes. This time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 BP in line with market expectations. After the event, the US dollar interest rate fell back to between 4.25% and 4.5%, but the latest interest rate dot plot gave the capital a shudder.

The latest interest rate dot plot has been posted before. The horizontal axis is time, the vertical axis is interest rate, and the blue dots are the votes of the 19 members. The expectation for 2024 has arrived, but it will be concentrated at 4% in 2025, which means that there will only be 0.5% space next year. It was this 0.5% that caught the market "off guard" and began to adjust. The US dollar index quickly strengthened, global financial assets plummeted, and the exchange rates of various countries' currencies against the US dollar also fell. The RMB was naturally affected, but due to the strong US dollar, it had to wait for the US dollar to cut interest rates, and then make adjustments. This move made the RMB fall to the psychological bottom line of 7.3.

The Fed manipulates Bitcoin, rejects Bitcoin, and all these arguments are half of the unspeakable secrets of the initiators, and the other half are people who agree with them because of past experiences and the environment they are in.

First of all, the Fed’s first demand is to escort the US economy. Therefore, the three issues of GDP growth rate, fiscal deficit rate, inflation, unemployment rate and macro balance are the most important. Secondly, the trend I said cannot be changed. Although the macro-economy and changes in US interest rates have a great impact on the market, they have never become and cannot become the soil for curbing the trend. Moreover, today when the Internet promotes the breaking of barriers to information dissemination, the consensus of Bitcoin will not take another three thousand years like gold. The next 20 years will enter a period of high-speed penetration, and Bitcoin will continue to break through. Based on this, the current decline of Bitcoin is an opportunity, an opportunity given to us by the market, and an opportunity to make up for it after not buying in the bear market. Such an opportunity is not available to those who say "the Federal Reserve manipulates Bitcoin", those who are all-in for copycats, those who have no financial planning, those who are not aware of it, and those who are all-in. This is a historical strategic opportunity that our generation will never encounter again, and it is worth planning for 10 years or even longer.