The Fed's speech in the early hours of December 19 was hawkish, indicating that it may only cut interest rates twice next year, and clearly stating that this is only a possibility, with specifics depending on changes in inflation data. The market interpreted this as bearish news, but the negative impact is short-lived, usually being digested by the market within 24 to 36 hours.
In the early hours, BTC retraced to around the middle Bollinger band at 100,000 on the daily chart. If any bearish news appears, its lowest retracement position will be here, which aligns with last night's prediction. If ETH breaks below 3,828, it will directly retrace to around 3,660, which was also mentioned yesterday. From a broader information perspective, we will not consider the two intermediate support points of 3,772 and 3,742 for now, but they can be used as profit-taking reference points during a rebound.
During the day, BTC needs to repair the small-level indicators below the 30-minute mark, with the resistance level temporarily looking towards 102,300. The support level below 100,000 is between 99,200 and 98,800, which is also the bottoming point from last Sunday, and additional buying can still be considered here.
When faced with such significant information, the following points should be noted:
1. The proportion of low long positions to pending order positions should not exceed 15% of the account's funds;
2. For positions with floating profits, a breakeven stop should be set immediately to prevent the inability to reach profit targets and to avoid floating profits turning into floating losses due to bearish retracements;
3. When the price falls below the defense point, reduce the margin of the position by 10-15%, and then additional buying can be done at a lower price to lower the average cost.
Some investors want to cut losses as soon as their low long positions are slightly trapped, which is indeed a poor strategy. It should be noted that many people's short positions are trapped in the 90,000 to 78,000 range, and they have endured for over 40 days, hoping the price can fall to 80,000 or 70,000. In reality, the bullish trend has not yet ended
