Amidst the heavy mountains and flowing waters, doubts about the road disappear, and there is another village with bright willows and blooming flowers.
The market always loves to shout 'this time is different,' but to be honest, I’m quite looking forward to that old routine coming back: if the four-year cycle of Bitcoin can continue, by the fourth quarter of 2025, the coin price might reach new highs again.
And then, it’s that familiar process: when BTC rises, mainstream coins like ETH and SOL will also climb, followed by another wave of tokens (perhaps meme coins will be the most enthusiastic) joining in, all rushing up.
However, the market always has its temperament, and after rising to a certain extent, it has to take a turn, then we obediently enter a two-year 'cooling-off period'. Just think about it, skyrocketing like this all year, who wouldn’t be exhausted? So those two years of adjustment are like a little vacation for the market.
After returning to the rising trend line last week, BTC continued to surge this week, recording a significant weekly increase of 11.76%. Driven by the 'Trump trade' market, BTC has accumulated a rise of over 30%, facing considerable selling pressure in the short term, but thanks to strong buying support and momentum, it recorded another significant increase.
Unknowingly, two years have passed, and we have finally welcomed the long-awaited new round of bull market.
I just looked at the BTC line, and I have to say, Wall Street is impressive, the fundamentals are stable as hell, it took a week to digest the selling pressure, and the bearish expectations for a pullback may be in vain. Tonight, the U.S. forces are charging in again after holding back for two days, new highs are beckoning us, congratulations to the bears for becoming fuel again.
It's easy to make money in a bull market but also easy to lose it; when the bear market comes, no one can escape the beating. Let’s re-examine the main line of this bull market, the most obvious is still the MEME ecosystem, and the main line of MEME is based on SOL, while other main lines are chaotic and won't provide clear benefits to ETH.
As long as MEME keeps going, SOL's strength will continue. The more people rush into DOGE, the stronger the demand for SOL will be; it’s only natural for it to rise.
So, will SOL really step up over ETH? In my opinion, when the talk of 'SOL will surpass ETH' becomes more prevalent, it may be time to reconsider and return to ETH.
However, there is a saying in the crypto circle: 'A day in the crypto world is a year in the human world,' and it’s uncertain when the next sector rotation will lead Ethereum to take the lead. After all, it's the king of altcoins, so those who hold should not change positions casually, and those who don't hold should wait for a correction to get better value!
I believe holding Ethereum is not about missing the bull market, but about having confidence in and benefiting from future increases in ETH.
Future positive factors that have yet to be released:
Currently, there are two heavy positives coming that have not yet been released. The first is FTX's $16 billion repayment plan, which has been delayed for a month and is expected to be realized soon. Once this news is released, it could directly push Bitcoin to break through the $100,000 mark.
Another clear positive is that Trump took office on January 20 and Musk officially became the DOGE minister, so the current price definitely won't be at the top.
As we continue to enter the bull market cycle, market structures indicate that a larger scale of retail-driven surges may still emerge in the future. At that time, Bitcoin will be pushed to new heights.
