The probability of Trump establishing a national BTC reserve plummeted, and the dream of $500,000 in Bitcoin was shattered?

Market data alert! According to Polymarket, the probability of Trump promoting the establishment of a US national Bitcoin reserve has plummeted from the high point on November 7 to 32%, a drop of 27% in just one week. This has caused many people to re-examine the realistic possibility of "incorporating Bitcoin into the national strategy."

Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz admitted that this probability is already extremely low, but he put forward an amazing hypothesis: if the United States really launches a BTC strategic reserve, the global Bitcoin price will usher in a sharp surge, and may even rush to $500,000! This is not a fantasy. The effect of national reserves will force other countries to follow suit, and the market will enter a frenzy of buying.

But from a calm analysis, this hypothesis remains more of a "paper stimulus." At present, whether from a regulatory standpoint or a macroeconomic strategy, the United States is far from ready for this step. In the short term, this dream may only continue to stimulate market sentiment, but cannot become a realistic market driver.

How should investors view it? In the face of this kind of "big pie", don't be carried away by emotions, be wary of short-term fluctuations, and focus on the core logic to be the winning strategy. Whether the future is a dream or a reality, the answer is not far away, but in your position management.

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