Under the impact of "hawkish" Powell, does Bitcoin still have room to fall?

$BTC #美国CPI公布后降息预期上升 #BTC连续破新高，你看到多少？ # Powell's speech in Dallas last night released an important signal. He pointed out that the US economy is in a stage of improvement, and the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. It is even possible to postpone the interest rate cut plan until January next year, which means that there will be no more interest rate cuts before January 2025. This news is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the original market's expectations of a rate cut in December. Just after the CPI data came out the day before yesterday, the probability of a rate cut in December was once pushed up to about 80%. However, after Powell's speech, the expectation of a rate cut was completely broken. This change is a big setback for Bitcoin bulls, because the reduction in the expectation of a rate cut will weaken the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a hedge asset, thereby exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.

From the perspective of the market, the decline of Bitcoin this time showed an obvious four-wave structure. So far, the price of Bitcoin has fallen from 93,300 to 86,700. This process shows a clear wave structure, and each wave has its own unique rhythm. Basically, the decline of any wave is after two efforts, it quickly bottoms out and stabilizes.

In the 4-hour Yin-Yang cycle, the Yin line is strong, and there is no bottom signal. After the market fell to 86,700 in the early morning, it entered the adjustment cycle similar to the previous situation. Therefore, the morning is an adjustment market. During the intraday rebound, we need to pay attention to the night rebound high of 89,700. If the rebound speed slows down and does not break through this position, the market maintains a low-level shock state, and there is no second high break, we will look at the decline

At present, the adjustment cycle has not ended, and it is difficult to define bull and bear, and there is still room for decline. Although the short-term has entered the adjustment stage and a certain degree of rebound has occurred, before there is an obvious bottom signal, maintain a unilateral bearish view and pay attention to the price decline.

Intraday operation ideas:

Bitcoin is shorted around the 88800-89500 range, with a target of 86800, and a break of 84000.

If it falls back to 86800 during the day, you can go long first, and then go short above 88300 to see the downward trend.